Live-Blogging Tampa Bay Downs and the Sunshine Millions

(From 1/28/2006, archived back to save space...)

*4:24PM Update: Stupid-ass technical difficulties have forced me to abandon my Quixotic quest to run all eight races at Tampa and all eight for the Sunshine Millions. That was fun, and I'll do it again someday, but I need to reboot and not stress the shit out of my system anymore today...

Huge day of late-January racing today, with the California/Florida rivalries on display at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita for the Sunshine Millions stakes program. I'm here in my living room having nearly thrown up a too-oily fried taquito just now, but with seven minutes to post at Tampa Bay Downs, I've got to get the party started.

Today's handicapping strategy is "Blink." I'm not spending a ton of time on the programs, so I'm also not spending a lot of money chasing horses around the bend either. I'll note my picks and CompuTrak picks as the day shapes up.

On to the live blogging...

12:20PM - Six MTP at Tampa, I was looking at morning line 20/1 shot Lucky Dove, as he gets TD Houghton and has two huge workouts and early speed to his credit. He's at 8/1, so I'm not as giddy to play him. By the way, the #2 horse is a son of a dam named "Jeannie the Meanie." I didn't know my ex-wife gave birth to a racehorse...

12:27PM - Apparently a concession-stand employee named Betty Squiers died. The track announcer just eulogized her, ending with "And the horses are nearing the post!" Just the way Betty would have wanted it. $7 to win on Lucky Dove. 10/1 as they're loading up. CompuTrak didn't make him a pick, but had his odds around 2/1. Good enough for me, let's roll.

12:30PM - Race 1 - Six furlong Maiden Claimer - They're almost loaded up... And the horse whose mother may have been my ex-wife just broke through the starting gate and is now fighting not to be loaded back in. Ah, memories of my contentious marriage.

12:32PM - And they're off... My horse broke sideways, and isn't looking great early. By the first quarter though, he's grabbing the lead as expected, with The Siphon King now putting a little length ahead. My horse doesn't seem to want to keep up and is getting passed. He has the rail on the final turn and is getting urged.... but it wasn't meant to be. He could finish dead last here. Too bad I don't get paid on a (very terribly far back) last place finish. Oh, and the winner? Jeannie the Meanie's son at 2/1. Fucker.

12:35PM - I know we're still in the tilt-a-riffic wake of race one, and y'all probably need a moment to contain yourselves, but I'm ready to soldier on. I really really really like #2 Wild Amber in the second at Tampa. Morning line of 7/2, this looks to be an awfully contested pace, and I think it'll be a race where a very capable closer could strike. I can't discount #4 Shine Please either, as she's coming off a second-place finish at the same distance in a slightly better class. The trainer got frisky with this horse off her maiden win, and spent way too long tracking her down to the right class level. This is probably that spot. She's got a morning line of 3/1, and I'm hesitant to play her anywhere under 2/1. I'm also hesitant to endorse an exacta or trifecta, as there's too many horses I don't like who'll want a piece of the lead. If one or more hangs up near the top longer than expected, it'll be a tough ticket to have predicted. CompuTrak, by the way, likes #10 Marchella (morning line 8/1). 22 minutes to post.

12:42PM: I mentioned the Sunshine Millions is today. The Sunshine Millions is a Florida- vs. California-bred series of stakes races ran in, well, Florida and California. They'll be on NBC with the first race starting around 3:20PM EST.

On the card at Gulfstream:
· Race 6 - The Padua Stables Sprint (with Mister Fotis, Bordonaro and Smokume)
· Race 7 - The Ocala Stud Oaks (with Knights Templar)
· Race 8 - Ocala Breeders' Sales Distaff (with House of Fortune and Dream of Summer)
· Race 9 - The Cloverleaf Farms Turf (with Silver Tree, Captain Squire and Willow o Wisp)

On the card at Santa Anita:
· Race 3 - The Dash (with Plagiarist)
· Race 4 - The Filly and Mare Sprint (with Western Hemisphere)
· Race 5 - The Warren's Thoroughbred Filly and Mare Turf (with Moscow Burning and Valentine Dancer)
· Race 6 - The Classic (with Lava Man, Supervisor, Buzzards Bay and Who's Crying Now)

Naturally, there'll be a Pick Six and maybe even a Pick Eight going on, but I'm not that flush with cash to play 'em. I'm not even going to crack the program until I'm done looking at Tampa's anyway.

Nine MTP for race two.

12:59PM: Two minutes to post, I'm putting win bets on both #2 Wild Amber and #4 Shine Please. I don't feel good about boxing them up, so I'm going to put Wild Amber in second with a variety of horses above him on an exacta. I went 1/4/8/10 with 2 locked in second...

1:02PM - They're loading up for race 2, seven furlongs for $7500 claimers who have never won twice. Not exactly Kentucky Derby winners.

1:03PM - And they're off. No panicking when #2 looks lost early... #10 gets out early, and my deuce isn't that far off, but is predictably last. 10 and 8 one and two early, which is good for my exacta. Let's get it going Wild Amber. On the far turn, the 10 is up by four and looks tough. Where's the two? Get up there! On the turn #10 gets caught, but the 8 is there. #2 doesn't look close. It's 10/8 and here comes two! She flew up on the outside, moving awfully fast in the final sixteenth, but I don't think she caught the eight. That's bad for my 7/2 win ticket, but should pay $25 on the exacta...

1:07PM: It's official. Eight then two, with a $25.20 payout on the exacta. With my $7 loss on the first race and $8 worth of bets on this race, I'm up $10 for the day through two. Goddamn I love feeling smart for knowing this race shaped up well for the #2, and for guessing (pure guess, that's all) that he wouldn't quite get there if another presser found a good trip.

Yes, I'm pussyfooting around my bankroll today. I'll start throwing it around like a Vanderbilt later on.

1:12PM - I'd like to welcome all the non-simulcast outlets following Tampa Bay Downs with me today, and would like to please remind you to tip your servers.

Anyway, race four is a maiden claimer over six furlongs, and this is my GENIUS LOCK OF THE DAY. #10 Yea Verily is likely to have the pace to himself, and should improve his speed figs from his last effort out. He ran from an outside post last out, and it didn't seem to hurt his ability to show early speed too, which I like to see. This horse absolutely moves forward today, but I can't play him under 6/5 odds. CompuTrak likes the 7 horse. I think my software is on crack.

Fifteen minutes to race three.

1:27PM: Three MTP, and Yea Verily (#10) is at even money. Yuck. Still, it's a strong predictor when you're looking at such a perceived early speed advantage in a Maiden race over six furlongs. I've got to play him. I'm dropping $20 on the win.

(I type this and he drops to 4/5)

1:30PM: The nightmare scenario is basically Yea Verily refusing to go to the lead. I just can't see that happening, and if he gets there by the quarter pole - even if contested - he should win this easily. Easily.

Late scratch, not my horse though. He's 3/5 now, and that scratch could push him lower. Ugh.

1:32PM: They're loading 'em up... and they're off!

Watching #10 closely out of the gate - he gets out real clean and goes up quick. Liking this so far, although he's four wide on the first turn. He can overcome this. Three back in third but hanging. He's still wide, and I don't like that. He passes and goes to second, and is running with the six horse strong on the final turn. He's gotten passed. He's got a bit left... get there... get there... whew. Won by 3/4 of a length, had something in the tank, thank fucking god. Of course, helps to have a rider named Jesus (Castanon) in the saddle. Excellent ride by Daniel Centeno on the #12, it was a valiant place effort against a real strong horse. Yea Verily got claimed, unsurprisingly. I'd have paid $25K for that horse.

1:37PM: $20 on the win bet paid $34. I'll take it. Glad I didn't get cute on an exacta, it paid $9 on a $1 bet. I'd have spent $8 chasing a $1 profit...

1:40PM: That last race was sponsored by the St. James Ladies Auxilary of the Knights of Columbus. I'm pretty sure I misspelled "Auxilary." I love that we have honest-to-god knights, but I enjoy that they have to have a special additional group just for the ladies. Do they spend their time reparing the chain mail and picking the skull fragments out of their gentleman's mace?

1:43PM: Real tough one coming up. It's a $16K claimer over 1 and 1/16 on the turf. I like #1 Joey Blueeyes a bit. He showed to a horse last out who went on to win at this class and distance the next race. I don't like the first-with-jockey angle, but 10/1 would be playable for sure. #2 Tis Magical is overrated, probably needs one to get his form back. #3 Cullen has a good angle with second off layoff (32% winners for the trainer on that angle). Still, I would only play at 20/1 or so (might see that). #4 Marquette has a graded stakes pedigree, but that was six years ago. Hasn't hung better than an 81 Beyer in two years. Pass. I do like #10 Heza Wild Guy, has three straight improving figs and placed last out in same class/distance/surface, and he gets TD Houghton. I hate outside posts coming out of the chute, but this horse is worth 3/1 for sure.

CompuTrak thinks #6 Last Stand should be played at 5/2 or better. Morning line of 5/1, sitting at 9/1 with Castanon on the mount. Might be worth a look.

By the way, Jose Lezcano is riding at Gulfstream today, which makes Michigan's own TD Houghton the big dog jockey on the program. Nice!

Ten minutes to post.

1:57PM: Two MTP, and Heza Wild Guy (#10) is at 4/1, while Joey Blueeyes is way underlaid at 5/2. Not even getting value on #3 either. $5 to win on #10 is the play.

2:00PM: Just so you know, today's fourth race has been named in honor of the Fountainview Estates. Presumably, they actually do have a fountain onsite, as opposed to the too-hopefully named McMansion subdivisions like "Falcon Ridge," which feature neither ridges nor falcons.

They're about to load up, and I'm looking for #10 to break sharply and get up near the lead and rail before that hard left turn out of the chute hits. If he hangs wide, I might be in trouble. There are a lot of contenders here, and I'm now getting 7/2. Ugh.

And they're off... Ten gets out good, and is getting up there... He's only three wide, two back off the lead. I'm okay with that, Houghton got him out sharply. Racing third, four back. Good spot. Hate early leaders in turf races. It's #6, CompuTrak's pick, with a six length lead. Jesus is up there for sure, and Ten is two wide in fourth. That's okay, save your run. On the turn ten makes a move, has some run... get up there. Nope, nothing left. Isn't making it. Tis Magical the #2 got there over #6 and #1. I didn't like #2 that much, especially not off a long layoff at 2/1. Wouldn't have played him there for sure.

Whatever, I'm still up $19 through four races...

2:13PM: CompuTrak likes #6 Andiamo, and so do I. Trainer is 43% returning a winner after running first last out, and he's had two solid workouts since. I'd play him at just north of even money. #4 Brian's Echo is interesting. He's got six lifetime wins, four of which were in 2005. I like that the trainer seems to have found places for this horse to succeed, and three of his last four Beyers were at 88. Consistency, my friends. #1 Forest Picnic can strike off the pace, and might be a value play around 5/1 or 6/1, but he'd need to find July's form. Not out of the question though.

The "name" play here is absolutely #10 DR. THUNDER, which would, coincedentally, be my porno name if I ever got a nine inch PVC pipe implanted in my wang. 8/1 on the morning line, so there's your longshot guess pick of the afternoon.

2:20PM: I really should be handicapping the eighth race right now (stay ahead of the program, helps you make better decisions), but this conversation came up in the comments, I'll repost it here:

I enjoy reading your blog I have an interesting horse at Tampa for the 6th race.

# 1 Blades Hill is a presser in a field filled with speed. # 8 Kaufy Machine, a speedy Kirk Ziadie hrose will be over bet. #s 7,8,4, & 10 should duel for the lead and set hot fractions. # 1 dropping from a stakes race should get a fine rail tracking trip. He has 3 wins from 7 races at Tampa and he should be a decent price. I am going to bet him across the board.
Laoch | Homepage | 01.28.06 - 2:12 pm | #

Laoch - I ran through that race about half an hour ago, I'll type what I wrote about #1 here verbatim:

"Avoid like plague - 21 point Beyer spike last out? Hasn't ever done that before? BOUNCE."

Of course, what the hell do I know? But he hasn't hit 85 on a fig in ages, and he spikes a 91? That's a hell of a jump, and I have a hard time not seeing him as a prime candidate to bounce.
BG | Homepage | 01.28.06 - 2:16 pm | #

A reliable bounce pattern, according to Betting Thoroughbreds by Steve Davidowitz, is the belief that if a horse runs an uncharacteristically high Beyer figure, they'll rarely repeat the number. It's an inexact guess to be sure, but I buy into it. Blades Hill hung a huge number last out, a number that was well outside what his form would indicate. I have a real hard time supporting a bet on a horse with a severe spike like that. I believe he'll regress. It's just two steps forward, one step back. Just my own personal approach, that's all...

2:36PM: 2/1 on the morning line, 2/1 now... $20 to win on #6 Andiamo.

2:38PM: They're heading towards the gate, it's 1 and 1/16 over the dirt for this $25K claimer, and I've got my money on #6 Andiamo. Current odds are 5/2 as they're loading, and I'm thrilled to be getting that. I really think he's an even money horse in this spot.

OK, back to 2/1, what can I do?

Got out good, and I forgot he's a grey! That's pretty cool. He's up between horses in second on the first turn, and I'm liking this. Brian's Echo is there, and a longshot up front too. Andiamo is in a great spot one off the rail in second by a half on the backstretch. He'll have plenty left for the stretch.

Into the final turn, still second, now first. A couple are challenging, but Andiamo is looking solid. He comes out with run, and has another gear. He's lengthening out and won't be beat here. Wins by nine. Fucking hell yeah, and I did get my 5/2 after all. $20 on the win bet, that's a $70 payout, if I'm doing my math right... Great race for Castillo, kept him right off the pace and was so much the better of these guys. Awesome.

2:44PM: $7.20 on the $2 win bet for Andiamo, and that was a gift. I'm 2-2 with my $20 win bets today, and in each case the horse was claimed for $25K. Eerie. I'm up $70 currently.

22 minutes to race six.

2:50PM: Race 6 coming up, and you know how I feel about Blades Hill (#1). Here's a longshot to look at: #2 Dangerous Guy. Love the trainer/jockey connection, and the trainer puts the horse in a position to succeed. Gotta like that. He also works out like a champ. If you can get him at 10/1, which I bet you can, play him. Otherwise, I like #4 and #7 to be running up (with a few others) on the lead, and for one of those two to hit the board. I'm willing to blow off #8 because he's getting an inferior rider to Lezcano (although Castillo did just ride Andiamo to victory...) this time, and I'm willing to play #3 if I'm getting 6/1 or better. Doubt I will though...

13 minutes to post.

2:55PM: Forgot to mention that CompuTrak likes the 6, 7 and 9 all at 5/1 as the co-favorites. In case you want to believe a piece of software over me...

3:04PM: Three minutes to post, and I'm getting agreeable prices on a few horses I like here. I'm going to take $3 win bets on #2 Dangerous Guy (7/1), #4 Davids Expectation (6/1), and #7 Sopa (6/1). I've also got the three boxed in a $1 exacta ($6).

3:07PM: Remember what I said about staying ahead on the program? Ugh. I've done a piss poor job on the sixth at Gulfstream (the first on the stakes program), and have seven more races coming after that at the two Sunshine Millions tracks.

And my Tampa feed has just cut out with one minute... okay, whew.

Anyway, my picks are going to be coming fast and furious on the stakes card, and I fully expect to get my ass handed to me. But for now? They're loading up for the sixth at Tampa...

I want to see all three of my horses battling up front, and I want to see it over :22 and 4 on the first split... that'll give one a chance to win for sure.

And they're off... good start, the favorite jumped out, and there's the four. The seven didn't get a good start, neither did the deuce. I'm liking the four right now, the deuce ain't got nothing right now. Final turn, and the four is there still. Liking him at 5/1, he needs to pass the favorite here. Kaufy Machine, the favorite is pulling away... got nothing. The favorite by two, and Castillo hits a winner. Minus $15 on that race.

3:14PM: (Gulfstream) I can get behind #7 Mister Fotis at 5/1 in the Padua Sprint. That's well within my range. I think #6 Bordonaro is going to be tough to beat, but in stakes class I have a hard time swallowing 8/5 if the horse isn't just head and shoulders better. I've also got a weird feeling about #8 Tacirring. I'm putting $2WP on the guy, just a flukey feeling...

3:17PM: Two minutes to post at Gulfstream, and I've got $2 WP on Tacirring #8, and $2 to win on #7 Mister Fotis. Not a confident couple of bets, but I'm not going to get cute when I don't have good info By the way, watch how overbet the Jerry Bailey horses are going to be today. He's a great jockey, he's retiring, but his 10/1 morning line shot shouldn't possibly be 5/1.

3:19PM: I'm in full-fledged panic mode now... I've only got the 20 minutes in between races to look at each upcoming race, so look for the bet sizes to be a wee bit smaller than my more confident Tampa plays.

They're loading up for the six furlong sprint, $300K down at Gulfstream. #7 and #8 are my two, with #8 a severe longshot.

And they're off... Hard to tell where my horses are, but I'm not in the front right now. Neither is the favorite. Go figure, Jerry Bailey gets up front, and here comes Ticirring. Liking my 8, he's in a good spot. Place for me baby. There goes the favorite, he's kicking ass. I've got a chance at the place. Maybe the win! come on! Got the place though, should make my money back plus some. Rock on.

3:25PM: $12.60 on the place for Tacirring. I just kept looking at that horses PPs and thinking he had an outside shot to hit, and I can't even explain why. That's a net +$6.60 on the race for me.

Tampa's seventh coming up, I have mixed feelings about #2 Pattiano. He gets Houghton and comes out of a GIII two back, but I hate the new trainer angle here, despite the trainer's success in allowance races. I like #3 British Event. He won last and the trainer gets one in four back to the winner's circle next time out. A repeat performance on the speed figure will be enough. I also like #7 Ayla Bella, who ran second to #3 last out. She'll push for the pace with #3 all the way around. Because of that, I've got a dark horse to watch. #8 Phone the Diva is 6/1 on the morning line, but should like the extra distance here and I think could be a factor.

3:34PM: Tough race to call here at Tampa for the seventh. I don't like 7/2 on Phone the Diva (#8), but I'm digging 5/1 and 8/1 respectively on #3 British Event and #7 Ayla Bella. I'm boxing those two with #5 Omeya (8/5 on the board, can't ignore completely). I'll take a win bet on #3 as well.

Two minutes to post.

3:37PM: Okay, I snuck a win bet out on #7 Ayla Bella too. 7/1 is hard to pass up. $3 each to win on 3 and 7, and a 3/5/7 box for this 1 and 1/16th on Turf. $75K Optional Claimer, so it'll be a good race.

Looking at the Santa Anita third, "The Dash," it's #1 Da Stoops and #6 Plagiarist all the way. #1 is steadily improving, he's a workout warrior and has Baffert/Espinoza connections. Good stuff. #6 Plagiarist threw a huge number in his one and only maiden race, and showed a ton of early speed. The trainer has been targeting his stamina with workouts, which I respect a ton.

They're loading up at Tampa... and they're off...

#7 got out good, and so did #3. Liking that. 7 is out real well by 2.5 lengths, but it's a long race. #3 is in a good spot. #5 is in back, but closers do well on turf. 7 and 3 in the lead running comfortably on the backstretch. 5 isn't challenging yet, but just made his move... he's coming up on the outside fast before the final turn, and is coming up on the outside. still 3/7... still 7/3... still 7/3... still 7 and now 5... hit the win, hit the exacta. Win bet at 8/1 for $3, which will pay $27 and change. The exacta should pay $29. Not bad! Great race for Umana on Ayla Bella, totally controlled the pace all the way around. Much respect for that ride.

$29 on the win, $29 on the exacta. Good stuff.

Five minutes to post at Santa Anita...

3:51PM: Fucking Internet. I got the $10 on Da Stoops (#1), but the system hung up on me. I'm getting choppy ass video, but can hear the announcer. Must get my bets in earlier.

And they're off... Should be fast, and 1 got out there real sharp. He's not up there immediately, but unwound easily. He's killing Plagiarist right now, and is putting distance between 2nd place #2. He's up six, Plagiarist is way back. Thank you Internet traffic! Da Stoops is KILLING them all. He's clear by five, now eight. Da Stoops by ten or more. Total romp, Plagiarist didn't even catch fourth. Had ten to win, should pay $23.

3:57PM: I lost a post in there, the one where I was saying I was going to bet $10 to win on Da Stoops, $5 to win on Plagiarist, but the system hung up on me due to Internet traffic. I got the $10 down though, paid $23 flat.

Good day today so far.

I'm going to let Laoch from my comments below give you a pick:

I am taking a stab on # 7 Peach Flambe at Gulfstram in race 7 - MOves to the Hennig barn after an expensive private pruchase. Impressive workout tab - tracked 21.2 44.3 fractions at Calder last time out. very tough race though.

I'm not even looking at this one. I've got five minutes to post and haven't cracked the program at all. Moving on to the fourth at Santa Anita instead. However, I'll play $2 to win on Peach Flambe (4/1 on the board, 12/1 on the morning line - no value there?), and will put $5 to win on #6 Bettarun Fast just for Patrick Valenzuela.

4:02PM: Two minutes to Gulfstream's seventh, but seven minutes to the last Tampa race on my list, the eighth. I'm going to avoid #1 Pinpoint, who's going to be overbet on an overinflated reputation and Jeremy Rose/Nick Zito connections. I like #2 Disbelief at a fair (5/1?) price, ran a bullet on 1/6 and this is his second at the track after being shipped in. He ran a solid race last out, like him to improve. #3 Bernie Blue keeps this horse in spots to contend, so I can't rule him out. The Pelican last out was a reach, but if he finds last fall's dirt form (not a reach), it'd be plenty. I'm also taking a personal flier on #9 Light Brigade for the Michigan Houghton/Bennett connections. Don't waste your dough...

4:06PM: Gulfstream's seventh... and they're off...

Peach Flambe (7) got out there fast, and 6 is out there well too. And my video is choppy as fuck and I can't see a damn thing. Where's my six? Where's my seven? No effing idea. Peach Flambe is going to the lead, and loses to Joint Effort... Wish I saw what happened there.

Oh well, on to Tampa's eighth. I'm playing $5 win bets on 2/3/9. This fucking laptop, I swear to god... Who wants to buy me a computer while I'm in the hospital?

4:11PM: The eighth race at Tampa is named for the birthday of Chet VanWorp. Happy birthday Chet!

I fully anticipate losing $15 on this race, but stranger things have happened. I'm getting 5/1 on Bernie Blue and 14/1 on Disbelief (#3 and #2). Oh, and 56/1 on Lite Brigade (#9).

And they're off... Nine got out real clean, liking that. Bernie Blue is there, but Disbelief sucks balls. 9 is out there in front, three is close. Liking this so far. Come on nine. Pay me big damn dollars. Big damn dollars. It ain't happening, don't mean I can't root. He's at the lead at the top of the stretch. Lite Brigade is there. HE'S PULLLNG AWAY! - No! No! No! Fucking hell. That was so very very close. He had the lead to the last six strides, I swear to god, then got passed THREE TIMES. I missed $5 on 50/1 by nearly nothing.

*4:24PM Update: Stupid-ass technical difficulties have forced me to abandon my Quixotic quest to run all eight races at Tampa and all eight for the Sunshine Millions. That was fun, and I'll do it again someday, but I need to reboot and not stress the shit out of my system anymore today...

Thanks for hanging out and reading today guys, was fun until I couldn't watch the races smoothly anymore...