random thoughts and thoroughbred selections

Tuesday, January 20, 2004

Fuzzy Math

How does 1+3+4+25+37+32 = 42,000,000?

When it�s my lottery ticket, and I hit all six numbers, as I am destined to do tonight.

I�d like to think that when I wake up tomorrow morning I won�t quit my job by 7AM, and won�t be booking my Vegas trip by 705AM.

But I will.

Here�s your poker-related musing for today, as because I am part of the Ig-centric poker blogging community, I�m obligated to talk about poker on the near-daily basis.

I want to address my time on PartyPoker first. My cards have gone ridiculously cold. My �playable� hands rarely include aces, I�m not picking up draws (flush or straight) on flops, and I�m routinely watching massive overcards hit when I�m holding a non-premium pair.

PartyPoker, therefore, is out to get me.

My bankroll has gone from (at a high of ten-twelve days ago) $325 to $125 over the past week and a half. It�s almost entirely been at the $2/$4 tables. I�m getting brutalized over there. It�s almost to the point where I�d like to see the wacky draw fish swim in their own damn pool and leave me the hell alone.

But I know better than that.

Without Poker Tracker, I�m not sure precisely where my faults are right now, but I can tell you that not flopping a damn thing is what is generally killing me. I can have a pre-flop raise type hand and position, and I�ll watch the board pair an eight or a nine on the flop. I guaran-damn-tee you that if five stay in to see it, someone�s got that card.

And they always do.

So I get this weak-tight game going, and start to play chickenshit poker.

But if you�re not catching anything with any regularity on the flop, what are you supposed to do? It�s not like I�m waiting on a full house flop, or need to see three clubs to make my nut flush. I�d just like top pair every once in awhile. I�d really like to not see three diamonds when I�m holding A4 of clubs. I want one of those monster flops to catch me every once in awhile.

Is that too much to ask?

Lately, it kind of is.

I�m going to look for a night this week where I can take my $125, sit down at a $2/$4 uninterrupted for three hours, and see what I can do (or can�t do) with it.

One last thing regarding PartyPoker� I�m not a �who are the Masons, really� type of guy. I don�t believe I�m being followed by the black helicopter men. I am not convinced of the existence of alien corpses at Area 51.

But I am marginally suspicious of the �action hands� and �action flops� that I�m seeing with regularity on Party. I�ve seen AA, KK, and TT all flip over at the end, with two of the three making sets. I�ve seen too many straight and flush flops. Too many full house probabilities on the board.

I don�t believe the program is skewed towards any single player in particular. I do believe that the program is less than purely random though, and does create opportunities for more action in each hand.

Just my $.02.

As for my home game, I�m really ready to take that next step.

I�ve totally proven that I can adopt different styles at the table, and win with any of them. I�ve played like a rock, I�ve bluffed, I�ve won with amazing cards, I�ve won without hitting anything higher than a set all night.

I�m not saying this to be cocky, but on any given night if I�m sitting down with our regulars, there�s little reason I shouldn�t be able to beat everyone at the table.

It doesn�t always work out that way, but with somewhere between six and twelve players per game, I�ve won the pot over 50% of the time. No one else is really that close.

From a purely financial standpoint, you don�t mess with a good thing. But from a competition standpoint, I really have no idea where I stand playing this game. I know I�m not good enough to challenge pros or a lot of successful amateurs. But I bet I�m better at this game than I think I am.

PartyPoker is no gauge of ability. Especially in a NL game structured to be completed amongst ten players in under an hour. I have to use what NL experience I have in my home game as the only indicator of my skills.

And that�s ridiculously difficult, as I know that there�s not another player at the table who has put the time and effort (and reading and practice) into learning and understanding the game the way that I have. I know that six out of ten of our regulars have very little in the way of sound strategy, and couldn�t milk a pot from the table if they tried.

It�s not as if I have zero competition here, but with as much dead money as we bring to our games, I don�t get the full table workout I need in order to get better.

To make it short: I need a game. I need to find a group of people who have been playing for awhile and get into their game. I need to see where I stand. Do I play well enough to learn big tourney strategy better to explore that area? Am I only good enough to take down the home game with regularity?

By the way, if you haven�t figured it out yet Lord Geznikor (I�m doing that from memory, excuse the spelling), I�m looking in your general direction here�

[>>]posted at 6:12 PM by BG - click to email
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