random thoughts and thoroughbred selections

Thursday, February 12, 2004

Babes With Arms

There�s a lot of general hubbub and to-do out there regarding the anti-trust ruling allowing Maurice Clarett to enter this year�s NFL Draft. Critics, as well as the NFL, are decrying the ruling because they�re afraid the NFL will turn into the NBA with all the high school kids declaring early for the draft.

Let�s get a couple of things straight right off the bat. The NFL is not the NBA, nor is it MLB, nor is it the NHL. It is not only the most physically demanding of the professional sports, but also requires quite possibly the most thorough mix of physical talents, teamwork, and game knowledge to be successful as a player. Here are some reasons why opening the doors to younger players will not harm the NFL long-term:

1)It�s generally acknowledged that high school players are not physically prepared to play NFL football. Largely, these are young men still growing into their bodies who would be well served with two to four years of preparation in the weight room before moving to the next level. NFL teams can�t judge a young player�s level of physical preparedness if he�s been playing against kids three quarters his size and half his speed. What happens when he takes his first big time hit? What happens when he goes from blocking a 5�10� 210 lb DE in high school to blocking a 6�7� 280 lb speed rusher off the edge in the pros? It�s a big, big leap in competition, and no amount of raw data on bench presses, squats, 40 time, or vertical leap can prepare a high schooler for that.
2)NFL contracts are not guaranteed money. Look, I don�t care who you are or where you are in your schooling, if you�re capable of being selected in the first ten picks of any sport�s draft, you should probably declare. The thing is, unless an absolute LeBron-type freak-of-nature appears on the high school level, there isn�t a graduating HS senior out there that will go first ten picks. Or first round. Or probably in the first two rounds. That moves a signing bonus down from millions to hundreds of thousands. That�s hardly enough money to be set for life. And without a guaranteed contract (as they have in the NBA), all you have to count on is your signing bonus. What happens if you get hurt in mini-camp and never see an NFL field on game day? You�ll get an injury settlement, but that�s it. And that�s not exactly millions either.
3)NFL teams can�t hide you on the roster and wait for you to develop. An NFL team has a 53 man roster. If you�re a GM, you need to make sure you can go two deep at every spot on offense and defense (44 players), you need three �specialists� (K/P/snapper), and you�ll need at least a half dozen guys who might be third or fourth deep in some depth charts who are mainly there to contribute on special teams. 44 on the two deep plus three specialists plus six special teams guys equals what? Oh yeah, 53. Well, what about the practice squad? Can�t hide anybody there, as any other team can pluck those guys off to add to their active roster. And the NFL is a little bit more stringent on �injured players� than the NBA. I only put the phrase �injured players� in quotes, because in the NBA you don�t have to be injured to be on the �injured list.� Any player drafted MUST be able to step in and contribute as part of the two deep roster, or they�re going to be cut, pure and simple. Why would a GM gamble a high draft choice if he�s not reasonably certain a player can rise to the level of competition?
4)Long term contracts don�t exist in the lower rounds of the draft. If I�m not mistaken, the standard contracts for a player drafted in round 3 or later are no more than four years, usually three. Agents don�t like long term contracts and teams don�t like to sign players to contracts that are �outside the box� for that draft slot, so a player drafted in later rounds is nearly guaranteed to only see a three year contract. There�s not a team out there that would want to draft a guy who isn�t going to be ready to be a star in four or five years, and only sign him to a three year contract.
5)The money isn�t great after round one. Ask Clinton Portis. He was a mid-second round pick, and is slated to make less than $400k this season. A kid is going to skip two years of college, hopefully improving his draft stock and signing bonus when he finally does enter, for $400k a year?
6)Luckily for these kids and their agents, the NFL is a cutthroat business. Look, in the NBA you carry a player who can�t play on your roster until his contract is up, then you can get rid of him. He�s still getting paid. In the NFL, if you�re not producing, you can get cut. All it�s going to take is for a half dozen of these kids to declare, get crappy late-round contracts, and get cut when they can�t make the grade in camp for these young players to wake up and see that they need NFL prep school, er, college to succeed in the NFL.

This isn�t going to be the problem some radio hosts seem to want to paint it as. I�d be surprised if the surprising declarations (Larry Fitzgerald can play NFL ball now, for instance) number more than just a half dozen in any given year.

[>>]posted at 6:52 PM by BG - click to email
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