random thoughts and thoroughbred selections

Tuesday, April 06, 2004

It�s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

One of my favorite weekends is rapidly approaching. That�s right, NFL Draft 2004. Nothing beats a big damn pizza, a plate of nachos, a six pack of beer, and nearly ten straight hours of Saturday draft coverage on ESPN.

Sometimes, it�s thrilling and engaging. Take last year for instance. Not only do you have the drama with Minnesota letting their pick slip down a few slots, and the other teams just after doing their damndest to get their picks up to Tagliabue before Minnesota can get back on the clock, but you also had that big trade that brought Kyle Boller to Baltimore. They must have shown the throw he made from the fifty yard line where he tossed the ball through the uprights from his knees about a dozen times. Kid has a cannon, I get it.

My favorite drama from last year was when round one was winding down, and Boss Bailey had yet to be picked. I was begging and pleading with the TV for him to fall to Detroit, and when he actually slipped to our pick, I was chewing a towel like Tark with nervous anticipation that Millen would somehow blow the pick and not add this freak talent at OLB to our roster. But he made the perfect pick, and I was an absolutely thrilled Lions fan with Rogers and Bailey in rounds one and two.

Sometimes, though, it can be frustrating.

For example, watching the Lions pick Terry Freaking Fair instead of Randy Moss. Or watching Green Bay trade up one slot higher than us to grab Vonnie Holliday (same draft I think). Or Seattle, two years in a row, taking the players I coveted in Steve Hutchinson and Shaun Alexander, both one pick before the Lions could put them on the squad.

Even the low rounds hold interest for me. The Lions suck badly enough that a fourth (Artose Pinner) or fifth (Terrence Holt) round pick can not only make this team, but be a starter almost right away. So every pick is crucially important.

I�m constantly changing my opinions on what to do with this first round pick. Assuming the Lions don�t trade down, here�s the usual suspects at this point:

Sean Taylor, S, Miami - Taylor is fast and strong and outside of the big two/three WRs (Williams/Fitzgerald/Williams) and Winslow, is the only player in the draft who has a good shot at becoming the best player at his position in the NFL. I�m not sure safety is a need position, but Taylor is an impact defender, and you can�t ignore that.

Kellen Winslow, Jr., TE, Miami - Winslow is athletic with tremendous hands. Lineage aside, he could be a key piece to a West Coast Offense�s puzzle, especially for a QB that checked down to his backs far too often in 2003.

Roy Williams, WR, Texas - Smart money says Roy�s off the board at this point after posting a scorching time in his 40 at his workout. People forgot what a tremendous talent Williams is amidst all the hype about Fitzgerald and the relatively unknown commodity in Mike Williams. If Roy is here, you take Roy at #6.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pitt - Ditto for Fitzgerald. If he�s there, you don�t pass on him. I�ve seen a lot of mock drafts that have him going to Arizona, but that doesn�t make any sense to me. They drafted Boldin and Johnson last year in the top two rounds, and would they again go WR in the first round? Unlikely, or at least that�s my opinion. I think Fitz could fall.

Mike Williams, WR, USC - There�s a school of thought right now that thinks Williams is going to hang pedestrian numbers up in his workout. He�s 6�4�, and would have been a TE five or ten years ago. But if this big possession receiver runs a 4.45? All of a sudden he�s back as a legit top three to five talent in this draft. If he runs a 4.6 or worse, he slips past #6. A fast time should lock him in the top seven or eight. If he puts up the 4.45, and he�s the last guy of the big three WRs left, Detroit would be dumb not to take him.

Stephen Jackson, RB, Oregon State - Here�s the wildcard. The Lions seem to be sending out signals that say they intend to grab Jackson, the best of a not earth-shattering bunch at RB this year. Can you make a case for picking Jackson at #6? Maybe, but he�s a 15-25 type talent, not a top six guy.

If I�m the Lions, here�s how I�d rank these guys (assuming Mike Williams runs at least a 4.45):

Fitzgerald
R. Williams
M. Williams
K. Winslow
S. Taylor
S. Jackson

And with a team as bad as Detroit, you take the best guy off the board.

Here�s my Detroit dream draft:

Round One � Fitzgerald
Round Two � Vernon Carey, G, Miami
Round Three � Tatum Bell, RB, Oklahoma State
Round Four � Bob Sanders, S, Iowa (no way he slips this far though)
Round Five � Best TE prospect available
Round Six � Jeff Smoker, QB, MSU

[>>]posted at 11:05 AM by BG - click to email
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