Saturday, May 15, 2004
My Preakness Breakdown
Alright, betting time... The Cliff's Edge has been (unsurprisingly) scratched. Little Matth Man, Song of the Sword, Sir Shackleton, and Water Cannon are not worth a look at any price.
That leaves Lion Heart, Borrego, Imperialism, Smarty Jones, Eddington, and Rock Hard Ten.
Boxing them all in a $1 trifecta would cost $120. No sense in that, as a Win or Place by Smarty Jones will bring the payouts way, way down.
So, gotta make a decision as to who I like here...
You flat out cannot leave Smarty Jones out of the equation. As I mentioned, on the off chance that his odds close north of 7/2, I'll gladly play a WPS bet on him. I just can't do that at 2/1 or 8/5, which is the more likely scenario.
I'm really torn on the three other Derby horses, Lion Heart, Borrego, and Imperialism. Lion Heart gave so much in his effort in the Derby, I'd be surprised if he has a lot left. Imperialism ran a beautiful race, but had to come around the last turn six wide just to find room to factor. That isn't easy, nor is it anything less than tiring. Borrego is a better horse than what his Derby line shows. Any other race than the Derby, if I saw his PPs, I'd be throwing that last race out the window as an aberration.
Can Lion Heart duplicate his Derby performance? I'm thinking it's unlikely, as he'll have Sir Shackleton and Water Cannon pressing him, and that will lend to quicker early fractions for a tired horse.
Can Imperialism get a better trip this time and factor again? Maybe. But he's only had two weeks of rest. I'm expecting a slight regression. As a matter of fact, I'm betting on it.
Can Borrego factor? I'm figuring that of the three Derby horses besides the favorite, here is your best chance to find a player in your exotics. He wasn't pressed, and didn't seem to expend his energy unnecessarily when his jockey knew that contending wasn't in the cards. And he's still a very capable horse. Winner? I don't think so. But a horse to add to the exotics at minimum.
I like Eddington and Rock Hard Ten quite a bit, if only for the "tanned, rested, and ready" factor. RHT less so than Eddington, but I still like them both in exotics.
And, of course, you're stupid to leave Smarty Jones out of your plays as well.
Key Smarty Jones in three trifecta wheels - in Win, Place, and Show - surrounded by Eddington, Rock Hard Ten, and Borrego. That's $18, your value suggestion. Throw Imperialism in there with the group for a $36 spend.
Play Smarty Jones WPS at 7/2 or better. Play Eddington, Rock Hard Ten, or Borrego for WPS bets at 10/1 or better if you'd like.
Good luck!
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