random thoughts and thoroughbred selections

Thursday, May 13, 2004

Preakness Past Performances Here

What I think I think about the Preakness Stakes this Saturday...

1.Lion Heart � Did exactly what I thought he would in the Derby, which was set the early pace at reasonable fractions and get passed at least once, but not three times, in the stretch to lose but still hit the board. Will 1/16 less in distance help him out? How about a presumably fast track? Actually, I think what hurts Lion Heart in this race is having another speed horse, Sir Shackleton in the race. Running the two longest races of your life two weeks apart (20+ day breaks in between previous races), this time with early foot alongside spells exhaustion. Despite a good trip at Churchill, I'll be surprised and impressed if Lion Heart can factor.

2.Borrego - My dark horse finished a disappointing 10th by 16 lengths in the Derby. That being said, it was on a terrible track at what in Borrego's career is an unusually slow pace. The Beyers for the Derby were atrociously low. $4,000 claiming level low. Blame the surface and the tight pack of colts trying to contend for that problem. I might play this horse north of 15/1, but he's not fresh, and were I his trainer I would have skipped this race for the more lightly contested Belmont in three weeks.

3.Little Matth Man - Nilla please. Don't waste your money. This horse took four tries to break its maiden. He did, however, lose a race to Scary Bob, who I swear Bob had money on in the November 28th race at Aqueduct they contested. I only wish Scary Bob was in this race instead of Little Matth Man.

4.The Cliff's Edge - Would you bet on the Dolphins to cover the spread if Ricky Williams had hamstring problems? I didn't think so. Cliff's got foot problems. Yeah, that's good. They should probably scratch him rather than running him again after the short Derby layoff. At full strength, I'd seriously consider. Maybe an exotics play if he runs, which I don't think is likely.

5.Song Of The Sword - I said in my Derby preview, �inexperienced, only 2 GS with no wins, has regressed in his last two.� Make that last three. He was 11th in the Derby. That's progress? If I didn't like him then, I like him less now.

6.Sir Shackleton - I get the impression he might be here to tire Lion Heart out and bring the pace to enough of a crawl after three quarters to allow a mid pace plodder like the also Nick Zito-trained The Cliff's Edge more of a chance to factor. I never like a horse in his first move up in significant distance, and you're asking me my opinion on a front runner who has never ran more than one mile? Not in a million years, I won't be surprised to see him leading near the last turn, maybe even through it, but expect the class of the field to soundly pass him. No factor.

7.Smarty Jones - I really couldn't find anything beyond �is this horse for real?� to say negatively about him before the Derby. Maybe, possibly a denigration of his competition would be appropriate, but beating a 21 horse field, even with the perfect trip on an incredibly and suddenly off-track is impressive no matter who you are. He's not coming out of nowhere anymore, and he'll go off as a heavy, heavy favorite. Look, he's proved he can stay with quick early fractions, slow early fractions with improvement, or run consistent speed throughout the race. Until he comes back to earth, he's the favorite. And even with the level of competition being tougher here than in the Derby (presumably), he'll still go off really short, probably less than 2/1. I'd play him WPS north of 7/2. Anything less and I don't believe the value is there. He could always lay an egg.

8.Imperialism - �Doesn't get tempted by early speed / Has never won over one mile on dirt,� were the comments I left pre-Derby for Imperialism. He's got an impressive line from the Derby. Ten lengths back after the first quarter and six wide around the last turn, and he still manages to factor. Don't overestimate this horse however, as I read a line like that and I get tired. What about the horse? I'd have held this horse out for the Belmont as well. Solid exotics play, but I wouldn't play WPS under 10/1 on Imperialism.

9.Eddington - The first of the big two Derby non-qualifiers, along with Rock Hard Ten. Eddington ran a strong race in the Wood, finishing third, and gets another Jerry Bailey ride. Between this horse and the other well-rested big boy (RHT), I think Smarty Jones is in for a rough race. I believe he's continuing to round into form, and will continue to get better well beyond this race. As a bold prediction, I'll label Eddington my early Belmont favorite. For now, I believe he'll hit the board.

10.Rock Hard Ten - Everyone who has seen this horse in person thinks he his the equine Adonis. Perfect and huge physically, with that Mr. Prospector pedigree. Lost his only GS race by a head to Castledale in an overrated Santa Anita Derby, but the best is yet to come for this horse. He's built to go one-and-three-sixteenth. An enigma, but an intriguing enigma that will be solidly overbet at the windows. Don't play for anything less than 7/1, but hope common sense reigns supreme here, and pushes those odds up and up higher. Very much worth a play above 10/1.

11.Water Cannon - He's a Laurel/Pimlico native that took six tries to break his maiden. Nope. Not in a million dollar stakes race.

[>>]posted at 8:25 PM by BG - click to email
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