Some Fantasy Football Thoughts…

Besides their position, what do the following eleven running backs have in common:

Clinton Portis
Edgerrin James
LaDanian Tomlinson
Ricky Williams
Deuce McAllister
Ahman Green
Shaun Alexander
Priest Holmes
Fred Taylor
Tiki Barber
Jamal Lewis

Give up?

At what is historically the most important position in fantasy football, these are the only eleven guys who are guaranteed to go to camp as an undisputed #1 guy.

I’m about to pose a radical notion to fantasy football draftees: Getting two running backs early is not necessarily the way to go anymore.

Assuming a ten to twelve team league, there will be only a lucky few teams that will be able to put Barber and Lewis, or Green and Alexander in the same backfield. Securing one of these top eleven should be paramount to your draft’s success.

But if you can’t get two? Don’t worry about it.

Let’s take these eleven guys off the board, and go team-by-team around the league to see where the running games for the rest of the league stack up.

AFC East: The Jets running game showed its age last season, but a distinct weakness over the top in the passing game really allowed defenses to stack up. New York is in a situation where they are going to have to really see what they have out of the under-utilized LaMont Jordan, as CMart won’t be around forever, and it is Jordan’s contract year. To this point, it’s unclear as to who, if either of them, will be garnering the bulk of the work. The Patriots solidified their backfield with the acquisition of Corey Dillon, who has the all-around skills to be an every-down back. However, this is an inventive offense that creates mismatches with personnel, and I would bet Kevin Faulk catches more balls this season than Corey does, and will certainly see his fair share of carries. Buffalo’s situation is interesting as well. Travis Henry has done everything Bills fans could have hoped. He provided stability and a 1200 yard presence in the backfield, and should have been a ten year starter behind Drew Bledsoe. The first round choice of a year ago, Willis McGahee, is my nomination for the “boom or bust” award in every draft. He’s either going to fully unseat Henry, or they’re going to provide a solid 1-2 punch with neither player outshining the other. I believe it will be more to the latter. Best Bet: Corey Dillon / Feast or Famine: Willis McGahee

NFC East: Cowboy fans have little reason to be optimistic. Troy Hambrick was less than serviceable, but was replaced by the two headed monster of Aveion Cason and Julius Jones. Maybe Jones will be the real deal, but I wouldn’t count on seeing much production right away. The Eagles saw Brian Westbrook blossom into an impact spark off the bench last season, but still found reason to re-sign Correll Buckhalter to a new deal. I believe Westbrook is probably too small to be an every down back, and will lose goal-line carries and short yardage opportunities to the bigger Buckhalter. Best Bet: Brian Westbrook / Feast or Famine: Julius Jones

AFC West: Who can figure out anything the Raiders are doing? Subtract Charlie Garner, but add Amos Zereoue and Troy Hambrick to compete with Tyrone Wheatley and Justin Fargas. While chances are slim all four will make the opening day roster, chances are slimmer that a 1200 yard / 10 TD back comes out of that group. Denver is going to get burned one of these years with this blind confidence that they can take any 4.4 40 guy and turn him into a 1500 yard back. I don’t dislike Quentin Griffin, Tatum Bell, or Ahmaad Galloway, but I dislike having to pick a starter from that group. These guys should all be terrific third down backs somewhere, not fighting for first down carries. Then they sign Garrison Hearst. Who will bubble to the top? And more importantly, will we be confident enough to pick one on draft day? Best Bet: Quentin Griffin / Feast or Famine: Justin Fargas

NFC West: While you think you can confidently say Marshall Faulk is the man in St. Louis, think again. Faulk is still a dangerous weapon, but the Rams will find good reason to get an aging star to the sidelines from time-to-time. Lamar Gordon might not ever be more than a complimentary piece, but he’s a decent one, and will be the closest thing to a platoon back with Faulk without actually going over that line. The Cardinals just made the puzzling decision to appoint Emmitt Smith their #1 guy before training camp, which is as much of an indictment of Marcel Shipp as it is an endorsement of Smith. Shipp may never see enough carries to make 1000 yards with the savvy veteran in front of him. San Francisco just promises to be terrible this year, and without wideouts to take the heat away, Kevan Barlow will find a hard time finding the light of day. There may not be a #2 guy pushing Barlow hard from behind, but with a suspect attitude and work ethic, we’ll see what happens to Barlow after his first 30 carry / 47 yard performance this season. It’ll happen. Best Bet: Kevan Barlow / Feast or Famine: Marshall Faulk

NFC South: Will the Falcons please just give the ball to TJ Duckett? Warrick Dunn is the answer to a question no one is asking. Without a strong push up the middle, defenses can collapse from the outside, which is going to limit Vick’s ability to be effective. Unless Duckett breaks out, this isn’t a situation you want to draft into. Carolina’s running game was solid last season, but Stephen Davis tires easily, and DeShaun Foster really showed some talent when he got the chance to tote the rock. I’m guessing about a 60/40 split between them for carries this season. Tampa Bay signed Charlie Garner and Jamel White, and the only hope for fantasy owners is that Michael Pittman does something else dumb to keep him off the field this year. Add to the mix Mike Alstott’s apparent health, and no one is likely to stand out of this group. Best Bet: Stephen Davis / Feast or Famine: TJ Duckett

AFC South: Is he staying, or is he going? That’s the Eddie George dilemma the Titans have before them. Regardless, an inexperienced Chris Brown and a slow but sturdy Robert Holcombe will see quite a few carries. If you’re gambling on the success of Domanick Davis this year in Houston, well, good luck with that. He’s got a talented Tony Hollings behind him, and is small enough that one solid Ray Lewis lick could knock him out until next September. I’m not pinning my fantasy hopes on Davis. Best Bet: Domanick Davis / Feast or Famine: Chris Brown

AFC North: Can anyone tell me what to think about Cleveland’s running game? William Green showed flashes, but seemingly can’t stay out of trouble. Lee Suggs had a brilliant game late last season, but do we expect the same this year? And there’s always James Jackson back there too sucking carries away. Pittsburgh returns Jerome Bettis, on his last legs, and the unspectacular Duce Staley. Good luck with all that Steeler fans. The situation is murky in Cincinnati this year as well, as the heir apparent to Corey Dillon, Rudi Johnson, now has first round draft choice Chris Perry to battle with in training camp. Best Bet: Rudi Johnson / Feast or Famine: Lee Suggs

NFC North: My Lions finally appear to be putting together a running game, but have three guys who will be seeing carries in Shawn Bryson, Artose Pinner, and Kevin Jones. Steve Mariucci has a history of using a running back platoon, so don’t bet on a big year from any of those three. Chicago is going to be atrocious this year, as befits any team that is willing to put the ball in Thomas Jones’ hands. Anthony Thomas ain’t exactly chopped liver, but he’s barely ground round. And I don’t envy anyone picking a starter from between Michael Bennett and Onterrio Smith in Minnesota. Don’t forget too, Moe Williams looked awfully sharp early last season, and will score 4-5 TDs that should have went to the #1 guy. Best Bet: Michael Bennett / Feast or Famine: Thomas Jones

In the majority of these platoon situations, it’s nearly impossible to predict who will be the breakout player, let alone who will get the bulk of the carries.

Do you gamble on Rudi Johnson being a clear-cut favorite over Chris Perry? Do you assume that Emmitt Smith will be an undisputed #1 in Arizona? Can you confidently pick a Bronco running back?

The better question is, do you pick one of these guys instead of going for a top WR or QB?

The answer, in my opinion, to all of these questions is a resounding “no.” Take the top eleven guys, and make sure you get one. But if you have a choice between Domanick Davis and Randy Moss, what makes sense? If you’re sitting in round two with Daunte Culpepper or Duce Staley staring you in the face, do you take that second running back because you feel you have to?

Absolutely not.

After the top eleven guys there are forty four running backs across twenty teams that will see the ball. You’ll have ten percent of them ascend into the top tier, you’ll have thirty percent of them be absolutely worthless to your roster, and you’ll have sixty percent of them that are just about as valuable as any of the other sixty percent.

The salad days for running backs are over. Elite WR groups are taking over this game. Don’t be left behind.