random thoughts and thoroughbred selections

Sunday, September 03, 2006

The Real Story Of Today's Pick Six Ticket

So CJ and I came out of yesterday battered and bruised, but feeling awfully good about three things. First, eleven of our seventeen horses made the money with four winners in six races. Second, that we lost the Pick Six by a combined length. And third?

CARRYOVER. A one day carryover in the pool of a cool quarter mil. We couldn't just let that sit, oh no... So we rounded up the usual suspects, took in a thousand dollars to play with, and put together another ticket.

It's a gut-wrenching tale of oh-my-god-no and can-you-believe-we're-doing-this sorts of angst, but we hope to hell to be as live on the board as we were yesterday. Or liver. More live. Whatever. By the way, the Pick Six at Saratoga today with a smaller carryover will pay anywhere between $62K and one million dollars. I'm just sayin'.

Live Updates To Be Inserted Below... (starting at about 715PM EST)

RACE FIVE, 12,500 CLAIMER - We liked four horses, the 2, 5, 6 and 8, but the 2 and 8 scratched. That made it easy. #5 is MICKY'S DOLL, who probably wants the extra half furlong and was very game in this class last out for a place and has worked good since. #6 is TUG O' WAR who took awhile to break the maiden, but has the second off angle and trainer/jock connex are solid. This wasn't a tough one to settle on, but it's a dangerous opener to be sure.

UPDATE: The two horses we picked are 4/1 and 4/5 respectively, and they're loading up... Seven furlongs... And they're off! They both got out good, six is grabbing a share of the lead. Five now snags it. Nine is up there, three's running well, but five and six are putting three in front of the pack dueling. Hoping this doesn't sap their energies. Into the turn, five still up, six right there. Looking good right now. Five holds getting into the stretch, neither asked for their best. Five and six lugging. Seven is passing them, five can hold. Hold five. Hold five! Jesus, close... Could have been seven... That was close as fuck, 19/1 #7 got up late. Five was looking good, but I think he got edged. Yeah, I think he got edged. We're done after one? Really? Yep, seven got up. Fuck. Longest price on the board, let's hope we have a shot at a good consolation payout if we can run the table from here...

RACE SIX, MAIDEN RACE - The class of the race was #2, who scratched. We found that one out early, which we thought would help us go a little skinnier here. We were wrong. We've got #4 MIURA BULL and #9 EL BAMBINO HUEY, who will share the short end of the pricing with a horse we passed, and added longshots #5 SILVER WIND (CJ's pick) and #6 AFLEET SPY (my pick). If we're live here, pull hard for #6. We might have thought about going with just #2 here, giving us more options elsewhere, but we got screwed.

Loving this dead-after-one bullshit, but keep in mind we've still got a shot at a sizeable 5 of 6 payout if we can run the table and catch a couple of prices along the way. The announcers on TVG made a good point that if you caught the #7 in the last race, you were probably playing that race wide at the expense of playing others as fully as possible. So, our best case is to catch the #6 here, and the #1 in the eighth, along with whoever's looming large on the board in the tenth. Yeah, that's likely. Anyway, they're loading up and we don't have the 2/1 favorite. Sigh... And they're off! One needs to die, but got out good. Six and nine and five all out well, which bodes well. Eight, who we don't have, is trailing. Liking six grabbing ghe pace, but #1 is close. Nine makes a 3W move and takes the lead into the turn, head for head with five. One's got no room, needs to be blocked off. Nine and one, nine and one... Nine's got this, so we've got a 5/2 winner here, which helps... but not enough. We need a price baby!

RACE SEVEN, OPTIONAL CLAIMING - For awhile here, we were going to single #7 WINDY, who's going to be real tough to beat here and will be an awfully short price. The TVG announcer is talking right now about getting physically ill the farther he gets into a live Pick Six ticket, and after yesterday I can relate. This is the spot we absolutely have to get past for a good shot here, but we backed up #7 with #5 UDRIGA, in whose notes I wrote "DO NOT IGNORE" in big block letters. She's got a huge shot to move forward at a price in the 10/1 - 15/1 neighborhood, and is bred for the sprint. Two deep in a seven horse race is okay, we really need Windy here though.

Everyone knows it's Winnn-deeee... Actually, we need Udriga here big time for any shot at a consolation payoff. We're wide in races eight and ten, but need a price here and our single in #9 to make any sort of money on this at all. They're loading up... And they're off! Five stumbled a touch, seven's laying off. That's okay, she's a closer. Five is out, that's no surprise. 10/1 would be nice. Two lengths but closing on the turn. Seven's still chilling in sixth. Moving strong and wide on the turn... Windy's coming around, and is FULL of run. This is her race, no way anyone catches her. Six ran well, just not as good as seven, who won by something like six or seven. And yes, the announcer just did the "everyone knows..." line. Ugh. We need a price in the eighth, and BAD.

RACE EIGHT, GRADE TWO DEL MAR DERBY - Because of the initial single of race seven and our strong feelings about races five and nine, we thought this was the place to go wide. And wide we went. Nine horse field, and we've covered six possibilities. #1 RATEAU is our longshot at 20/1, and I refused to put in this ticket without him. #4 GET FUNKY and #5 LIGHTNING HIT are also priced to play, and we added short prices on #8 UNION AVENUE, #9 POINT DETERMINED and #10 PORTO SANTO. Please, for the love of god, keep 2, 3 and 7 the hell off the track...

We really need the one or five here for a price, otherwise I think we're looking at a pat on the back and a smile even if we run the table from here. So at least I know which of our six to root for, I guess. Eight, nine and ten are good quality horses and all, and I hope we can nail the one and everyone else has these guys batched up on their tickets. That's really our best shot. They're loading up... And they're off! 30/1 on #1, and he got out clean towards the front. Good stuff. Nonsensical (who we don't have) isn't urnning away with it, which was a concern. #1 is out there, #4 is there too. Liking #1 right now, this is a good run to form. Let's hope he can hold the others off. #4 gets up close, now passes #1. Seven is right there and making a move on the backstretch. He's passing going into the last turn, and here's hoping he gets passed by one of ours. One saved ground, isn't firing. Four is going gamely, Two is running up but GET FUNKY makes a dent, and we get a 6/1 winner here. Not the price we needed, but it's a positive result again for us. Now root like hell for the nine in the next.

RACE NINE, MAIDEN RACE FOR TWO YEAR OLDS - Here's where the nausea will set in if we're live or three-for-four coming into this one. We singled this race. You heard me. We had our ticket put together and were ready to make the bet, and we found out #4 COLONEL CHICK scratched. Fuck, this was a two horse race with #9 DILEMMA, and we felt good about two deep here. Singling this one makes me sick. Absolutely sick. If we're live here and miss this one... Christ, I don't even want to think about it.

The ten is a Merv Griffin horse. Isn't that nice. Now get out there and lose to the nine motherfucker! The nine is 6/5 on the board, and clearly the class. Of course, that means he's likely to finish eighth as if his pockets were full of lead. They're loading up... And they're off! Christ this makes me nervous. For an atheist I certainly invoke the name of your lord fairly often, eh? Anyway, nine got out good and runs up solidly to take a share. Four across to set the pace, ten is out there and a couple of the others I kinda liked a bit are fading in back. Nine is sitting one off the leader and just now is making a move at the top of the turn. He's getting even with ten and is going to be hard to catch if he keeps this up. He's moving fast and there's a couple around him... but they won't get him. He's got it, but at 6/5. At least we hit our single.

RACE TEN, MAIDEN - If by any freak chance we're live coming into the tenth - even for a consolation payout - we're going to feel real good here. We've got five of eleven locked up in #1 JOLLY SPIRIT, #4 KING OF ROHAN, #7 MAJESTIC AMERICAN, #9 SYLVAN HILL, AND #9 OKA KING. Of course, watch the updates to see if we get this far. This card was harder than yesterday's to be sure...

THE ONLY PROFITABLE SCENARIO HERE IS A WIN BY THE FOUR - CURRENTLY 27/1 - $4500 PAYOUT FOR US - I'LL BE BACK TO LIVE BLOG THIS IN FIVE MINUTES (WILL POST IN ABOUT EIGHT)

Rooting like a motherfucker for the four here, and it's a maiden race so anything can happen. Hell, who am I kidding? We're screwed. He's sitting in the 30/1 neighborhood and we're going to see him come in sometime around dawn as far as I can predict. Watch the eight and the one here, I'm liking both quite a bit. A couple of people with the ten and twelve marked are rooting like hell for their million dollar ticket, and the five and six could gift a couple of lucky holders a half mil. Us? We're just hoping for $4500 and we don't need another horse bad beat story. Did I mention we've only lost three races in eleven so far by a combined length-and-a-head and at least two legitimate flukes? Jesuschrist, come on four.

They're loading up... And they're off! I'm only watching the four, and I hope to see speed. Got off okay, bumped a touch at the start and is about six of eight in the front pack about three off. He's found a spot on the rail, but who gives a shit about saving ground in a sprint? 9/5 Sylvan Hill and #1 Jolly Spirit at 2/1 are rushing fast. Four is looking good but not as good ast he best of these. He's sitting about eighth after the turn and has no fucking shot. It's one, and one alone.

We might be seeing a consolation payoff, but I can tell you we're not making our money back - or even close. I'm guessing $250-$400 or so, if at all. I've never hit five of six before, god knows how this works...

PAYOUT UPDATE: I'm going to wait for CJ to confirm before saying this is official, but it looks like our $1K paid out $378. No, not $1,378. Just $378. Of course, the way it looks on the website, it looks to cover those who had a horse that scratched and were perfect otherwise. I dunno if we cash this ticket or not, but to know that we lost two pick six payouts by less than fifteen feet total is somewhere between wildly encouraging and ridiculously demoralizing. At bare minimum, I think CJ and I are really coming into our own on these bets and in our handicapping...

[>>]posted at 5:41 PM by BG - click to email
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