random thoughts and thoroughbred selections

Saturday, July 01, 2006

Arlington Park Picks for Saturday, July 1st

Race One

There's a whole mess of first-timers in this MSW for 2YOs, and if you think you're getting me out on a limb here, you're nuts. I like the jockey/trainer percentages on #8 Cruising Cart and #1 Small Fry, and I think #4 Scatter Shot can better hold his pace this time, unless #5 Custom Cart's workouts indicate he's ready. Good luck here.

Early Pick Four ticket = 1,4,5,8 / 1,4,7 / 6,7 / 1 = $24 (races 1-4)

Race Two

#1 No Worse For Wear was last out in unrestricted claiming class, and showed resilience in her finish. I like that, and like the pressing style too. 7/2. #2 Catchyounextime has Beyers that say yes, but 1-25 lifetime says no way. I think she catches a share, but any horse that takes seventeen to break her maiden and is on her seventh attempt to graduate N2L is worth passing over. #4 My Little Mimi is probably a little overrated on the morning line, but is 4-6 in the money lifetime. Not a career loser, that's a plus. 2/1. #7 Mrs. Capp took 13 to graduate maiden, but ran a career-best last out. If you play the improve angle, here's your horse. Progression seems sensible, I'm just lukewarm though. 3/1.

Race Three

You have to think #7 Gigi From Fiji is a deserving favorite, and I'll agree with the 7/5 morning line. Why the tag drop though? This is the right class for success, but the trainer is either gambling that he can cherry pick here, or there's something wrong with the horse and they're trying to unload. I'm trying not to be so goddamn suspicious lately, so we'll stay optimistic. #6 Indelibull Rose can get the distance, and I like a rebound performance here. Should hit the board. 2/1. #8 Meet My Kid is interestingly inconsistent. She goes from dirt to turf and back, and has had three trainers in four months. That being said, this horse has also been in the money three times over that stretch. I'm a little concerned she can't get the distance. 9/2.

Race Four

#1 Irish Song took a nice layoff, but still is putting in the work. I like a strong rebound and more restraint keeping him off the pace. 5/2. #3 Tejano Taylor has a pattern that suggests a nice zig-zag improvement into the mid-70s for a fig, and can get the distance. I think this is your favorite if the turf is soft (shouldn't be, though). 4/1. #6 Tenpointfive is solid, consistent and capable. The only knock I have is he's sat too close to the pace in shorter races and "couldn't last" (a few times, on his charts) in the stretch. I'm playing against him in the win slot. 3/1. #7 Sign The Ticket is great on turf and lousy off. He's got a real shot at a longer price. 7/2.

Race Five

#4 Spanning is slightly overrated on the morning line. The trainer is nothing to get worked up over, and he's pushing this horse into a tag jump off a long layoff. I think this is a weak play close to even money but worth 5/2. #6 Proven Honor is long on the morning line, but shows improvements and a historical love for running in the summertime. Very, very capable of hitting the board. 7/2. #3 Miss Expectations has figs that suggests she's capable in company. She's got a great post, and has a shot to bounce back up to the mid 70s. I hate inconsistent horses, but don't be surprised to see her sneak in. 4/1. #2 I Love Lisa is in the right spot after winning at $14k and getting too frisky at $25k. 20-34 ITM lifetime, 15-27 ITM at this distance. I like her a lot. 2/1.

Race Six

#12 Load a Chronic (tee hee) is an improving bomber from the outside, recently running at 5/2 in this class in May. He's improved since, and won a stakes at Canterbury last out. 5/2. #1 Lord Carmen has good workouts, but I think she needs one. 6/1. #2 Lacer has looked terrific off layoffs over the last two years. 90 on the figs is in reach, and I think she's the one to beat. 2/1. #5 Gallo Del Bar steps down in class and is a serious bomber who should be a huge factor in the stretch. 2/1. #8 Rapid Proof has the highest lifetime figs, but that just means she'll overlay here. Bah. 5/1.

Late Pick Four Ticket = 2,5,12 / 1 / 3,6,7 / 2,3 = $18 (races 6-9)

Race Seven

Explain to me how you bet against #1 Chile's Quest? If he scratches, I'll handicap this race.

Race Eight Stakes!

#3 Equal Opportunity has Bill Mott returning 25% winners over a not-statistically-insignificant sample size. He comes off a solid mile run in June here, and can get the distance. 3/1. #5 Icy Ridge is a west coast shipper on the improve. Like the Irish pedigree, one of the second-tier here. 3/1. #6 Desert Wheat may be underbet due to an ugly last, but if you toss you're looking at back to back 90+ figs. Has run wide to his detriment, but I think maybe the upgrade to Chris Emigh steers him straighter. You'll get a good price on this one, take it. 3/1. #7 Storm Treasure was your place horse to Sinister Minister in the Bluegrass, and made no ripple at all at the Kentucky Derby. He's been working on the grass and is more than just happy to be here, especially after taking third from five wide on the turf in a GII last out. Big shot. 2/1.

Race Nine

#3 Boom Boom Charlie - let's go way out on a limb here... This is a 3YO colt with only an MSW win under his belt and some middling performances since. He closed from midpack over a mile on the turf to win that MSW, then promptly took six months off. His return was lousy, his two follow-ups worse. Then he was dropped in (what appears to be) unrestricted $30K claiming on firm turf (first time firm since his fairly okay lifetime debut) and brought home fourth place. That's not the story though. Looking at the lines, he sat off the pace as usual, but for the first time since his maiden win he gained ground over the last 3/8ths in an attempt to compete. I look at that as serious improvement, and think if he can put another together (history suggests he can), there could be a significant step forward here.

So many inconsistent horses in this one, I like the longshot angle. #9 Devil's Diary is an ugly favorite whose best should be plenty here. I have no faith in the trainer to reproduce a consistent effort in this middling contender, although the upgrade to Emigh in saddle should help. #2 Mr. Jingles is a pace setter running a turf route, and we all know how much I like to play those. He's capable, but I'm not thrilled at his lack of consistency on the turf. #5 Class Ack is fine if you enjoy betting a horse on that second-off-layoff angle. I just can't get excited about those middling workouts. His trainer, though, is 2-2 with that second-off angle, paying $21.50 on the average win.

[>>]posted at 11:07 AM by BG - click to email
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Monday, June 26, 2006

BG Rates Your Home Game

cyaneyed

If a picture is worth a thousand words, here's the story behind this one. Red just overplayed her Queens right into the teeth of a flopped open-ender, and the brunette caught her draw on the river, busting Red in the process. Then they kissed, tongue and everything. We saw nipple too. You can't help but love playing poker with women sometimes.
Rating: Lesbiannicaly Allowable

Poker is a game of skill, a chance to match wits with your friends and neighbors in an effort to establish your mental supremacy by depleting the ammunition of your opponents by any means necessary. Lao Tzu would approve of the way Texas Hold 'Em has captured the imagination of our national consciousness. Lao Tzu, however, would have better things to do than play for whatever share of the middling $6.50 from this game that goes to the winner.
Rating: Not at $2.88 a Gallon

eyal.grossman.jpg

It's summertime, it's warm. We understand this clearly, having spent the better part of the last two weeks laying directly over a metal grate on the tile floor of our bathroom in an effort to back our internal body temperature down from medium-rare. But no matter how secure you are in your masculinity, Mister John-Landis-With-A-Thyroid-Problem, put some goddamn pants on.
Rating: Possibly Gay

quinn.anya

Mom says that's the last time you berate someone for chasing that three-gapper into a rivered gutshot. Don't tap on the glass, asshole.
Rating: Gold Medal Parenting

Despite the look of stolid contemplation in his eyes, carefully calculating pot odds and how married he is to that Ace-Ten with a short stack yet to act, we're pretty sure the only thing this guy is going to take home is first prize in the Ken Berry lookalike competition. Mama always thought Vinton was out of his league with Naomi, and we're positive this guy's over his head playing a middle Ace out of position.
Rating: Post-(Vicki)Lawrencian

jeff.stiefer.jpg

We've always gone to games like this one with two bags of Funyuns, a roll of breath mints, and a full bottle of Febreze so we don't roll home smelling like Three Days of Peace and Music. While you might end up having to chip in for pizza and are constantly reminding seat three it's his action, the plus side is you can outplay any guys who can't remember what you showed down last orbit, let alone last hand. Stay away from the brownies.
Rating: Dude, Awesome

Rating: With all respect and inspiration due from The Black Table...

Found items via Flickr, image names refer to the users pictures were cribbed from.

Las Vegas Vegas Rates Your Home Game I
Las Vegas Vegas Rates Your Home Game II
Las Vegas Vegas Rates Your Home Game III

[>>]posted at 3:39 PM by BG - click to email
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