Turfway, Oak Tree, and Why I Love This Game

Now that Frist has managed to sneak the Internet Gambling Act into a port security bill, now is as good a time as any to jump off the poker bandwagon and come on over to play the horses with me. It's legal in most states, and you can do it from the comfort of your living room with a YouBet or TVG account - just like poker.

Just promise me you'll ask for my bonus code before signing up for YouBet, alright?

We'll start with Turfway, but the only one I want to get into any significant detail with is race two. This maiden race for two year old fillies is a perfect example as to why I love this stupid game.

TURFWAY 1 - I like #6 English Dancer at 2/1 (morning line 6/1). I think her form is darkened by turf races and off tracks, and he looks to be in a good spot here. #1 D'Court's Speed and #7 Erdiston are worth looks, but at no skinnier than 5/2 and 7/2 respectively.

TURFWAY 2 - My favorite thing about handicapping is using incomplete information to form an opinion that rewards both your ego and your pocketbook when you're right. With different kinds of races you'll use different filters to process the information. With two year old maidens without a great deal of history behind them, it's all about angles. You take what's worked in the past, find horses that fit the template, and hope you find one that stands out.

Good luck with this group. I've got five angles I look for with lightly/unraced maidens: Experience, class, last pace, improvement and connections. Unfortunately, I can fit four horses into these five angles.

#3 Perfeck Connect is the experience play. 8/1 on the morning line, she's got a +10 Beyer advantage on the field and her trainer is 21% with second starters. A distinct Beyer advantage is a huge angle here, and you can usually count on a step up from race one to two.

#4 Rebalite is the "last pace" play. I look for horses in maiden races that look like they're learning, and I've had a lot of success looking for one indicator of improvement in particular - did the horse go from a sluggish maiden race to actually leading or pressing the pace in her last? Rebalite was on the lead in her last through a half of 23/2 and 22/4, which isn't brisk but that should mean she controlled the pace and could/should respond well to another horse at her heels. She did finish in 29/3, which isn't great but she's learning. 12/1 on the morning line.

#7 Thunder and Belle is a class play who also has a last pace play angle as well. In a MSW49K (this is a lesser class of MSW22K) at Churchill last out she went 22 and 22 for her half, keeping presurre on the pacesetter who went wire-to-wire. The winner and another from this race went on to run in stakes company, so you know this is competitive company. Her ability to push the pace in a race like her last shows that she's competitive there, and probably as classy as any in this group. Oh, and she's 15/1 on the morning line.

#12 Cleverdale is my connections play. A first time starter, Pletcher hits with 22% of these and 29% of two year olds overall. Bejarano gets the ride, and his injury earlier this year combined with the ascendance of Leparoux has people forgetting what a great young rider he really is. Cleverdale's Tomlinson breeding capability figure for this distance is also a dominating factor, which adds a little class play angle as well. This is your likely favorite, and Pletcher's hit 7-16 winners with unraced two year olds at Kentucky tracks who go off as the favorite over the last five years, and is 2-2 under the same conditions with Bejarano onboard. I'm just saying... She's 3/1.

So who do you play? Good question - I'll let you know when we get there, but I'm leaning very much towards the #7, who could jump out and grab control of this one early. It might be worth locking the #12 in first and scattering the rest underneath in an exacta, but I can't get behind a trifecta with so many unraced horses at the gate. Too many things could happen.

I've got four horses here to try and get behind, I just have to solidify my logic before post. God I love this game.

TURFWAY 3 - Tough race, but I like #6 Devil In Excess at 5/2, and #2 Bavarian Baron and #7 Back to Bernie both at 3/1. I think the numbers 3/5/8 could also threaten, but 6/2/7 are your top three.

TURFWAY 4 - #9 Base Commander should be played at 2/1 or higher, and #8 Frisk is worth a look at better than 7/2. Alternate Entry #14 Drink With The Devil might get in, and if so I'd play in the 4/1 neighborhood.

TURFWAY 5 - LONGSHOT ALERT - #7 Tidy Up (6/1 morning line, 2/1 my line) was a winner at the distance and on the surface (Polytrack, which many today don't have a history with) last out. Fahey is 23% in 2006 with a small barn, and the pressure is always on these small batch trainers to find spots for success for their horses. He's also hitting 27% winners with horses that run between 5/1 and 10/1 in sprints over the last five years. This horse is the pace, and is 2-2 winning over this surface.

I also like #3 Shark at 5/2 (my line) and #4 Louderfasterharder at 4/1 or better.

TURFWAY 6 - Looked for a closer or stalker here, and I'll grab #3 La Reason as my 9/5 favorite. She's got a 5/1 morning line, so this should be a good play. #7 Splendid Blended I've plugged in at 2/1, and #11 Soul Search is a closer with a shot to strike at or above 9/2 only. I'm also trying to figure out the alternate entry #13 Slew Peg, who set a track record two weeks ago here over a mile. The part I'm trying to figure out is why she's a 15/1 morning line shot. If she's north of 5/1, put a few bucks down. She won that mile going away.

TURFWAY 7 - Probably the hardest race I've ever handicapped, and I'm still flummoxed. #8 Likely is my favorite at 2/1, with #9 Changing Weather and #10 Island Warrior both at 3/1 on my line. #5 Ghosttrapper is next at 4/1, and I'll put a line of 5/1 on both #1 Four Sevens and #4 Reigning Court. I really have no idea what to think here, other than getting behind the idea of a pace collapse with Likely cleaning up the mess in the final furlong.

TURFWAY 8 - #2 Good Reward at 5/2, #1 Premium Tap at 3/1 and I'll set lines on #3 Ball Four and #6 Alumni Hall at 7/2. Play #7 Perfect Drift keyed in exactas and trifectas, but not in the winner's slot. He'll hit the board, but he won't win.

TURFWAY 9 - #12 U D Ghetto at 2/1 (10/1 morning line), but I'm second guessing myself. I like #8 Shermanesque at 3/1, which is where the morning line has him too.

TURFWAY 10 - #6 Kauai Calls 2/1, #8 Cherokee Sheik 5/2, #2 Natalicat at 3/1.

TURFWAY 11 - #4 Postitive Cat 6/5 (lock of the day for this card), #3 Snow Kid 5/2, #1 Conga 4/1.

TURFWAY 12 - Pass

OAK TREE 1 - If Turquoise and Gold doesn't win here, there's something wrong. 3/5 is my line, I'd be shocked if he's offering more than that.

OAK TREE 2 - Hello Fame 2/1. You'll probably get a better price than that here.

OAK TREE 3 - McNasty 5/2 (morning line 6/1), Totally Gone 7/2, Rising Rate 9/2.

OAK TREE 4 - Wait A While 8/5, who cleans up the pace duel. 7/2 on both Moscow Burning and the collapsing Dancing Edie (after the likely hot pace). Lock Three Degrees outside of the win spot in exotics.

OAK TREE 5 - The Tin Man is a mortal lock. He'll be unbettable here.

OAK TREE 6 - 6/5 on Jona's Prospector, who I love here. 5/2 for Joe On The Go.

OAK TREE 7 -

OAK TREE 8 -

OAK TREE 9 -

OAK TREE 10 -

Tampa Bay Downs 4/15/06

CJ and I are picking the card independently, here's a look at both our picks, along with a tout sheet I bought online ($10) and the CompuTrak picks. Should I be frightened that with all this agreement between the picks that I'm going to lose a TON of money today? Fuck.

Race 1:

CJ
#3 Sweet Devil
#6 Little Bit Foolish
#7 Captain Zones

BG
#3 Sweet Devil 9/5
#7 Captain Zones 5/2
#6 Little Bit Foolish 3/1

EXPERT
#6 Little Bit Foolish
#3 Sweet Devil
#10 Notafigment

COMPUTRAK: #6 is the Pick, 6/3/12 top three

Sweet Devil is 6/1 on the ML. Notafigment runs first with Lasix today. The expert says on Little Bit Foolish, "Will most likely compete strongly in the early speed battle which bodes well with this group of animals. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of very good win percentage - 19 percent - at this distance & surface. Should definitely be given a chance in this event if only for the very strong speed figure posted in the last contest."

Race 2:

CJ
#1 Windsor Dickens
#8 Rocky Plains
#7 Caper On Holme

BG
#3 Inda Caton / #8 Rocky Plains 5/2
#7 Caper On Holme 7/2
#2 Savannah's Wish 4/1

EXPERT
#6 Angel By Day
#5 Sun Stroke
#7 Caper On Holme

COMPUTRAK: #8 is the pick, 8/1/2 top three

I think Inda Caton is on the improve, and has the second-off layoff factor (trainer 19%) going for him. Rocky Plains is also improving, and the trainer is a capable guy who sees enough in his condition to turn him around on a two week schedule. I like Windsor Dickens dropping from unrestricted class here, and his workout schedule has been solid, but you're banking on this horse coming off his layoff strong enough here, and I just don't know that I want to play that angle with this one. His morning line is 2/1 and I've got him at 9/2 - which I'll admit is probably too high. I don't think you're going to get Dickens as a value play.

Race 3:

CJ
#10 Hamlin
#6 Success Affirmed
#3 Edgerson

BG
#10 Hamlin EVEN MONEY

EXPERT
#13 Roster Man (alternate entry)
#14 Rockit Man (alternate entry)
#10 Hamlin

COMPUTRAK: #10 is the pick, 10/3/2 top three

I'm going to need to see at least 9/5 on this horse to make a play, and his morning line is 5/2 so maybe I'll get it. The rest of the field is a disappointing collection of never-gonna-bes. The "expert" seems to ignore the horses most likely to run in this race, going instead with the likely scratches. Great.

Race 4:

CJ
#2 Bye Bye Ladies
#6 Stormy Babe
#10 Diamond Fire

BG
#2 Bye Bye Ladies 6/5
#9 Mysteriousness 7/2
#10 Diamond Fire / #11 Mistress Raj 4/1

EXPERT
#6 Stormy Babe
#2 Bye Bye Ladies
#4 I'm an Evil One

COMPUTRAK: #2 is the pick, 10/2/6 top three

Bye Bye has a recent bullet and a capable trainer who knows what to do with sprints. I can see a solid step forward here. Stormy Babe I have at 5/1, fifth best on my board. I think it's encouraging she's not a career loser like my second choice Mysteriousness, but I'm discouraged that the trainer keeps changing the jockey (fifth different across last five), and he's not a real capable guy himself. Could she score here? Sure. I just have too many doubts. Mistress Raj will be an interesting horse to look at, as I'm betting she's going to hang close to the pace and could find a way to factor off those 20/1 odds. Call it a gut feeling, nothing more.

Race 5:

CJ
#10 Hup Two
#8 Shucks
#3 Hots Is Hot

BG
#3 Hots Is Hot 2/1
#8 Shucks 3/1
#10 Hup Two / #1 Volcanic Force 7/2

EXPERT
#10 Hup Two
#3 Hots Is Hot
#8 Shucks

COMPUTRAK: no pick, 8/11/9 top three

Not a ton of disagreement here, but don't ignore Volcanic Force in the exotics.

Race 6:

CJ
#5 Worldly Endeavor
#7 Splice Girl
#3 Witto Road

BG
#8 Rolly's Babysnooks 8/5

EXPERT
#7 Splice Girl
#8 Rolly's Babysnooks
#3 Witto Road

COMPUTRAK: no pick, 8/5/3 top three

Despite the seemingly ringing endorsement of Rolly's Babysnooks here, I have a note at the top of this race that says "FIND A LONGSHOT." I guarantee you my favorite goes down here, as there are too many what-the-hell-are-you-doing-in-this-race horses here, and something odd will happen. Here's my questions on CJ's picks... Why is Worldly Endeavor being turned after two weeks AGAIN after that pattern has resulted in two straight and obvious regressions? Give that horse a rest! Can Splice Girl get the distance? Are you sure? And do you really want to play a horse (Witto Road) in N2L company that hasn't been close to graduating for over a year? I'm really not in love with this race.

Race 7:

CJ
#7 Professor Biggs
#9 Big Tex
#6 Sandy's Secret

BG
#7 Professor Biggs 9/5
#3 Drivingmaxandmitzi / #4 Oh Oleg 7/2
#1 Mr. C Note / #9 Big Tex 4/1
#5 Wolf Howl 9/2
#6 Sandy's Secret 5/1

EXPERT
#4 Oh Oleg
#5 Wolf Howl
#7 Professor Biggs

COMPUTRAK: #7 is the pick, 7/4/3 top three

See the post below for what I think about Sandy's Secret, but he stuck in my craw as I was breaking down this race for some reason and on the rare occasions that happens to me, those horses tend to perform. Anyway, Professor Biggs is a solid choice here, but I threw in my seven other horses of the nine here to remind our trifecta players (coughCJcough) to cover their bases here. It's a difficult race to pick two and three effectively, so watch out.

Race 8:

CJ
#9 She Too
#5 Dual Diagnosis
#1 Honeymooning

BG
#9 She Too 8/5
#2 Top Kitten 5/2
#5 Dual Diagnosis 9/2

EXPERT
#9 She Too
#4 Hi Class Gift
#5 Dual Diagnosis

COMPUTRAK: #5/#9 co-picks, 9/5/7 top three

I don't think Honeymooning has the figs to hang in allowance class here, and I think Top Kitten does. We'll see.

Race 9:

CJ
#4 Seneca Summer
#1 Tyler's Jewel
#8 Northcountry Chief

BG
#4 Seneca Summer 2/1
#7 Natural Advantage 3/1
#5 Notonetoquit 9/2

EXPERT
#4 Seneca Summer
#1 Tyler's Jewel
#6 Ceviche

COMPUTRAK: #4 is the pick, 4/1/9 top three

I've got Tyler's Jewel at 5/1 and Northcountry Chief at 6/1. The Chief spiked last out and is taking a significant tag jump as well. Smells like disaster brewing to me. I like Tyler's consistency, but he ran two back at 36/1 and his last at 13/1 in this class. Neither time in the win or place column. I don't see it. Natural Advantage would need an improve, but his last was a non-wagering event featuring Kaufy Machine and Above the Wind, two much better horses, so his fourth place finish is deceptive.

Race 10:

CJ
PENDING

BG
#6 Puzzle 2/1
#9 Secret Samba 3/1
#10 Full Flavor 7/2

EXPERT
#3 Way Out Verdict
#2 Ituna
#5 Secret Lies

COMPUTRAK: #9 is the pick, 9/11/8 top three

Race 11:

CJ
PENDING

BG
#9 Adham 5/2
#10 Light Night 3/1
#3 Lakely 7/2

EXPERT
#10 Light Night
#1 Heath's Jet
#9 Adham

COMPUTRAK: #9 is the pick, 10/3/9 top three

Lakely emerges from a key race where first and second both went on to win their next. I like this step up, and I really do expect him to outrun the 7/2 oddsline I set. He's going to be my play.

Race 12:

CJ
PENDING

BG
#10 Quite the Guy 9/5
#9 National Anthem 2/1
#7 Go for Glitter 3/1

EXPERT
#7 Go for Glitter
#5 Johnato
#14 Nobodys Listening (alternate entry)

COMPUTRAK: #10 is the pick, 10/11/9 top three

Really splitting hairs when picking between Quite the Guy and National Anthem. I just have more faith in the trainer/jock connex with QTG.

Tampa Saturday Picks Pending...

But just so I can say "I told you to bet him" on Sunday, SANDY'S SECRET in the seventh at Tampa tomorrow has an 8/1 morning line, and is absolutely worth a few bucks on a Win/Place wager. He's 2-2-1 across seven lifetime, and gets his second try on the turf. Yes, this is only his second on the grass and yes, his previous was a sprint and not a route. But he's got a capable small-batch trainer with the following percentages this year:

28% winners second off 45-180 day layoff
33% turning a sprinter to a route (and this horse has run distance)
20% overall on routes

He's turning him around after a little over two weeks, and putting him back on the grass without a claim tag in OC$32K class. His Beyer of 75 last out on the grass could be due for a jump, and I think the trainer's faith in his ability to succeed here is worth a bet. He's 8/1 and I'll bet you get better than that.

Picks for Tampa Bay Downs, 03/11/06

ONE:

#1 SOCIETY SAM is a contender, especially if he can find January's form. He's malleable to any pace scenario, which is worth bonus points in my book - 3/1

#2 IRISH ROGUE needs to improve speed to contend. All recent wins are in restricted claiming class, which I discount - 5/1

#5 TAKKI TSUNAMI is likely to be overbet, but a zig zag improve to a mid 70s fig isn't out of the question. Like the close stalk trip he's likely to get, and think this is a good spot - 4/1

#6 PRECEPTOR is outclassed and can't finish. Pass - 6/1

#7 KID QUIXOTE is rounding back into form and his speed is more than adequate. He'll run up close and I think that'll benefit and allow him to score - 2/1

#8 WHAT A SHOCKER flattened out in 8500CLM last out, which is like two steps north of this class here. I think if he can regain his closing burst, he'll be fine here - 2/1

#9 DREAMIN OF GREEN had a month off, but will probably hang another middling effort. Was improving, did step up, and now what? Pass - 6/1

TWO:

#1 ROSE CREEK has come off layoffs sharp in the past and has plenty of speed to contend. Like her from off the pace - 2/1

#2 HOHO TOW is trained by Barbara McBride, and she knows what she's doing. This horse is on the improve and I don't see a furious pace that would hurt her - 9/5

#3 MUSKETRY is taking a step down in class, but that doesn't matter if you can't close - 5/1

#4 CLEANING HOUSE would need a hotter pace to factor - 9/2

#9 YASOU NIKO can improve, but how much? He gets the sensible pace he needs and could control it up front. Might be a little underrated here - 4/1

THREE:

#1 ROME IS BURNING would be great on the 2nd off angle were he being trained by someone strong. Right class/spot to improve though - 9/2

#3 MAN MADE is probably using this as a glorified workout. I like his class and the fact that he's a router who can close, plus he's been working out strong. Can't toss him out - 7/2

#4 GET OUTTA DODGE will respond well to being dialed back in distance. Wondering, though, if the price will be agreeable - 7/2

#7 SMILEWITHPLEASURE has a good shot here. I like the stalk trip and success at this level. He hasn't gotten past #12 previously though - 5/2

#8 BRIEFTON can score, but I can't get excited when the last out looks so atrocious - 5/1

#9 INDIA SUN is a classy horse that will stalk the pace. This is a curious tag drop first off a claim for an obvious contender, but I can't not consider this horse on that alone - 5/2

#12 CERTAM SWEEP seems to be coming around, and has had success at this level - 3/1

FOUR:

#4 KIP TO MY LU in a totally paceless race will likely take the lead and control it easily up front. She's been steadily improving, and I think restricted claiming class helps her find her form - 3/1

#5 MAGIC LINE has an interesting recent pattern. Ciardullo ran this sprinter in a route, then chased it with a 3F bullet workout a few days ago. I'm afraid this horse will be wildly overbet, I think 2/1 is fair, but I'm looking for a little more - 5/2

#6 CONCERTA gets Umana back, and her last few have been run at a quick clip. This pace scenario looks to suit her chances better. I like an improve - 2/1

#9 TOOSMARTSWEETHEART can't be endorsed as a deep closer in a paceless sprint - 6/1

#12 CONFIDENT HEART features Deborah Artz training 5-12 winners with her first time starters. She's worked out well and wouldn't have to reach too far back to find her form. Real interesting - 4/1

FIVE:

#4 INTRIGUING PROSPECT is worth a flier at a big price. The trainer/jock connections are in place - 8/1

#7 PORTRAIT OF A LADY is a first time starter with a recent workout on turf, which is a good sign. She's super classy out of AP Indy, the trainer is 31% on turf, 20% in this class, 25% with first time starters and 60% with Lezcano. Worth a play - 7/2

#8 DAZED is almost impossible to bet against. Irish filly trained by Bill Mott on turf? Love her last, and she shouldn't run into problems here either - 2/1

#5 SAND DREAM is an improving filly who took well to the grass. Has some class and a real shot - 7/2

#2 PRINCESS MARQUETRY is a horse I'm hoping is forgotten in the rush to bet #8 at the window. Best Beyer in the field last out, and unignorable - 2/1

#1 RUN WITH THE SPIRIT stuck in my craw. Play high for fun - 12/1

SIX:

#3 ICY FORTUNE has a long and steady pattern of improvement. Must include in exotics - 9/2

#4 LITTLE ARSON ANNIE has two wins in this class this year already, and her last out for a $12,500 tag is forgiveable - 2/1

#5 SHARENSKI can, but will she? - 5/1

#6 ALEXANDRIA VICTORIA will have a nice price on an improving filly. Worth a look for sure. Has held her speed much better over the last two - 4/1

#7 TRICKY SANDS might have been privately reacquired by the owner (who is also the trainer and breeder) after being claimed two back. I think that's a good sign, and I'll toss the last as a result - 2/1

#11 SUMMER BROOK can't be ignored. The last was the obligatory tag jump post-claim, but I still think she's a longshot - 6/1

SEVEN:

#1 BEAU CLASSIC has the Houghton/GBennett connection I love, and the horse is taking a slight tag drop. He's putting up solid efforts at the distance/surface over his last two - 5/2

#2 CHARISMATIC ROB is an inconsistent horse, but his pattern says he's a contender. Look for a solid jump, but I don't think even that puts him across first - 9/2

#4 MAJOR PARKER is a horse I've won a ton on, and the price will be right again. He's capable - 5/1

#7 PROFESSOR BIGGS has consistency and a closing style, and really should like the extra sixteenth here. He's really responding under Waunsch - 2/1

#8 SOVEREIGN HONOR has Lezcano aboard, who ditched #7 to ride this one. He's winless since August 2004 though, and inconsistent this year so far - 5/1

#9 QUITE THE GUY won at 13/1 at this distance/surface last out, but is relatively unexciting here - 4/1

#10 STREAMLINE should respond getting back on the grass - 3/1

EIGHT:

#3 TAP DAY has four huge figures in a row if you're willing to toss that ship to Japan. I am. He's been working strong and won this race last year. Huge - 2/1

#4 SEEK GOLD didn't like the slop last out, but should respond better here. Can't see him crossing first though - 5/1

#6 ANDIAMO is a horse I love. He's kicking ass, keeps hanging bullets, and should be priced right - 5/2

#11 ON THIN ICE should duel up front with Andiamo. Workouts are very solid, and this distance suits him - 3/1

#13 MIDNIGHT ARRIVAL (alternate entry) will get a play for me above 8/1 if he's in

NINE:

#4 SPIDER THE GLIDER will be in the mix. A win isn't out of the question - 5/1

#5 KING CASSIA is 6-9 crossing first lately. Very consistent. Wants the pace and should get it. Huge - 8/5

#7 ADMIRAL LANCE won at this class/distance two back, and is primed to replicate the effort - 5/2

#8 CHATHAM STRAIT is a classy colt with a capable trainer. Finished behind #7 last out with a solid closing burst. I like an improve - 5/2

TEN:

#1 EL GRAN MARCO finished October great and laid off since. Posted a bullet in mid February, and Joan Scott is 2-3 this year bringing a horse off 61-180 days. A shot - 9/2

#2 GUMBA is sprinting? No thanks - 6/1

#3 COUNTRY MOGGIE is running first Lasix and has huge workouts lately, including a bullet on Wednesday. Love a big improve - 2/1

#4 ONLYNURIMAGINATION is consistent across surfaces and two for two lately. Like a ton - 8/5

#6 SARATOGA JULES is 2-2 lately as well, if you want to count the recent DQ. A progression puts him in the mix - 4/1

#11 COOGAMONGA has the Houghton/Bennett connex and will probably be a decent price come post time. This is a former Ziadie sprinter, albeit briefly, and his last two aren't spectacular. That could change - 7/2

ELEVEN:

#2 SPECIAL FORCES has four straight place efforts in this class and close, but is 3-39 lifetime. Hard to ignore, harder to endorse - 9/2

#5 RUBY DO might be a longshot special. Blinkers come off after a rough go last out. Had plenty of speed in the fall, maybe the equipment change wakes him up - 5/1

#9 WESTERN NIGHT is a third time starter and the likely pace. He can definitely go wire-to-wire - 2/1

#12 HE'S MY MAN comes out of a win in what is a fairly tough $8500CLM class here, so the stalking trip he had is impressive in my eyes. He's also three for his last three - 8/5

TWELVE:

There is no possible way to bet against #6 MISS LAKEN. Any price north of EVEN MONEY is totally playable

Picks for Evangeline Downs, Friday 3/10/06

Starting in race four...

FOUR

The pace is going to be key in this one. Look to CALL THE DIRECTOR, whose early speed is painfully obvious. Were he able to run mostly free with stragglers behind him, he might be worth a look. Problem is, LARRY AND PETE and FOWLER CREEK, and possibly even SIESTAVILLE are going to want to have a taste of the lead too. I think this race is going to feature three horses blowing themselves out on the lead unnecessarily, and a stalker or closer coming from the pack to wrestle the wire away from tiring leaders.

So who?

SIESTAVILLE is interesting. Thing is, from the points of call it looks like he has a predisposition to running up front, but I'm not so sure. He's had success from just off the pace and when you look at the quarter mile times he's posted in routes, they are very consistent through the first two calls. Theoretically, he's just running his race regardless of pace. I like that it didn't take him long to break out of N3L, and that he's 6-9 in the money lifetime at the distance. Trainer's returning 30% of his previous winners to the circle too. JUDO should rebound, but the question is, "how much?" I'd like him a lot better if he had been claimed by a better trainer. HEY BUBBAH ran at this class and distance a month ago at 7/5 odds as the favorite. Really? He hasn't won in two years since a 10K N2L, and this isn't an easier spot than that. Who knows what sort of price you're going to have to swallow on this inconsistent horse? One thing to like though is that he's the logical contender if you want to consider only deep closers. He'll be playable at a price. JUST WALTZ doesn't come off layoffs strong, get rid of him. MAURICE has taken 28 tries to break N3L, and note that he's seen half this field graduate out of races in that class in which he competed before he moved forward. I think the trainer switch could be a good sign, but this is an older horse and you have to wonder how much. A step forward might put him in contention in this pace scenario. LARRY AND PETE is dead in the water, and FOWLER CREEK might have a shot if Smith can hold him back. The trainer and jock are (something like) 25-39 in the money, but I'd probably suggest FC for exotics only. MID RIVER is a play if it's muddy. Otherwise, it's been a year since he ran impressively.

MY LINE

SIESTAVILLE - 5/2
JUDO - 6/1
HEY BUBBAH - 5/1
CALL THE DIRECTOR - 5/1
JUST WALTZ - 10/1
MAURICE - 5/1
LARRY AND PETE - 20/1
FOWLER CREEK - 9/2
MID RIVER - 3/1 if it's muddy, 7/1 if it's not.

FIVE

I only like two horses out of this pack. FLYIN ALFREDO, assuming he's on the rail, is going to be the one to beat. He's got that early speed that should allow him to get out front right away, and I think he holds it and wins. BUSTER'S ENTRY is interesting, but I can't fully back him in a sprint with that closing style. Not with Alfredo ahead of him, at least. Lay off of SOUPOFTHEDAY, he hasn't shown anything on dirt. Why they're not focusing his energies where he's been most successful is beyond me.

ALFREDO = 7/5
BUSTER = 5/2
SOUP = 8/1

SIX

I wish I could back FOCUSED TO WIN. I like her last an awful lot on the pace, but SKOOCH OVER is going to want a share of the lead after the first quarter, which could press them both to getting tired faster. I'm also just a little frightened of the inconsistency, and that she hasn't put IDA'S GIRL or FRAULEIN HELGA behind her at the wire yet. I'm thinking PARIS PRIDE is going to go off with a very deserving short price. I love the move to the Hassenpflug barn, I love what he's doing with dirt claimers, and I love that he's tossed 30% of his winners back to get their picture taken next out. She's been improving steadily, and won last out in $12500 N2L company. So what is she doing here? I'll bet you a dollar right now someone claims her out of this race, so why risk it? Is the horse sick or injured? I can't see the competition being an intimidating factor at $12500 N3L or even $10K N3L, so what's up? Wish I knew. FAPPY'S WALKER is an interesting choice. She's going to be content to come from off the pace, and I think this race sets up for a well timed late strike. She didn't take long to bust N2L company, and her first out in N3L was a narrow miss. I think the additional distance here will really help. SKOOCH OVER though... I really like the style of laying off for a quarter, challenging the leader, then holding the speed through the end. The last in 10K N2L was pretty solid despite what looks to be a pretty clumsy last quarter. I think she's got a lot of potential to strike here, and it should be interesting.

FOCUSED TO WIN = 5/1
SKOOCH OVER = 3/1
PARIS PRIDE = 8/5 (but I can't see playing this one below 5/2 - nagging feeling something is wrong and they're dumping her)
FAPPY'S WALKER = 3/1

SEVEN

I will take any price you want to give me north of even money on MORTIMER LOCKMAN. So many things to like. He's coming out of a classier circuit, he's posted strong speed figures, he's working out towards early speed (dig the bullet in December, liking the 4F work last week) and he's shown solid stalking pace and good consistency since day one. I love how the Beyer figs all line up real nice too. Oh, and don't forget the trainer percentages too. Every single thing says "WIN" to me.

Now, beware of METCALFE. Look at how he's been tossed aside (essentially) by two trainers in a row. Went from being a DWayne Lukas horse to being sent to the capable Albert Stall who had him for one race, cut his tag by over 50% and got rid of him. Then this no-name trainer cut THAT tag by over 50% after investing eight months trying to bring the horse around and dumped him too. The trainer that picked him up? 0-13 at the meet. Don't be suckered in by the Churchill/Keeneland Allowance race pedigree - this horse is dead.

VALID PATRIOT needs attention in exotics. I'd probaly toss WILD WILD LIES and WHISTLIN' OMEN into that mix if you were going to go beyond the exacta.

EIGHT

SHAWKLIT'S SOPO is interesting as the closest pace to the rail. You get the feeling looking at her history that she wants to sprint, but they've had her running miles for most of her career. I think she's got an excellent chance to have the lead right out the gate, and the ground saving trip to boot. I can't help but think that FLASHY ISLAND GIRL is due for an improve. She likes 5F, and is capable of jumping back into the mid sixties for her Beyer fig at any time. Oddly, this horse broke her maiden at 5YO in a quarterhorse sprint. I didn't think they let thoroughbreds do that. FORTY BABES last race didn't look impressive, as she went off as the morning line favorite (eighth time out of 14 career starts that's happened) and only managed to catch up for third. That being said, she was possibly hung out wide by virtue of starting out of the tenth gate, with a 5F race hitting the turn rather quickly. I think she wants 6 or 6.5F. She's going to go off too skinny again, and I can't back this horse short. WILD BERTIE looked to be a bounce candidate going into her last, and did regress - but really only to near her peak capabilities. I like that she'll want to jump out early, I like her efforts in better circuits than this, and I like her chances here. The <10 day turnaround is intriguing too. Shows a lot of confidence from the trainer. FUTURE JUSTICE is going to be an interesting horse to watch the oddsline on. I think she's going to come off last out's performance even better, and a return to spring/summer's form would be enough to contend here. I can't see playing her too thin, but the chances you might see a solid price are there. LAU MOR'S GLITTER (I'm assuming) is going to be hurt a bit by the outside post. I also have a hard time backing any horse that took as long as she did to break her maiden. I can't see unrestricted $15K claiming as a good next logical step out of $10K N3L in this case. If you want to believe she's rounding into form, be my guest. I just don't think the ability is there.

SHAWKLIT'S SOPO = 9/2 (I like a play on her above this number quite a bit)
FLASHY ISLAND GIRL = 5/1
FORTY BABES = 4/1
WILD BERTIE = 2/1
FUTURE JUSTICE = 3/1
LA MOR'S GLITTER = 5/1

NINE

CHIEF WHAT IT IS has the best Beyers in the field, and gets the rail trip. I like him in this spot a lot as a dark horse you're going to get a real nice price on. I'm figuring he'll be sitting there in the 4/1 neighborhood at post, which will be quite generous. The Chief deserves a play at 2/1.

LAKE MAC MAC could replicate early October's form and look solid here. Unfortunately, he's been a little out of form since. I do like the 12/31 race with Lawyer Ron as the winner. I think finishing fourth to that horse brings no shame. Then again, the field was five.

HEMI POWER - if the pattern holds, he'll follow his seventh place finish with a win. Do you bet on symmetry?

DIRECT SPLASH has the speed figs to be a logical contender, and maybe (just maybe) those last two out were harder races than they looked. Hell, if you're stepping out of that 1/1/06 ALW race with that past performance chart and into a stakes at 22-1? Yeah, probably pretty difficult field. I like the improvement, I like that he's faced tough runners... Maybe worth a play at 3/1.

UPSTREAM is a Steve Asmussen trainee that followed a nice pattern of workouts with a very solid fight in a $125K stakes last out. Last four races he was the post time favorite, and hasn't regressed significantly in any of his efforts. No progression either, but the horse is still young and learning. 5/2, based on a thought he'll come out swinging this time.

VOODOO GOLD has won a ton of money and showed some good early speed in his young career. I like that Carmouche is back onboard, and Norman Cole is a hell of a good trainer. Outside post won't help, but I'm not sure it hurts significantly either. He's going to be your short price on the board, I'd play north of 8/5. There's too much other talent here to play him lower.

Good luck to CJ, live at trackside at EvD tonight.

Tampa Bay Downs Picks, 3/4/06

Not a terribly exciting early half of the card, I like a lot of chalk up front. That being said, there are a few races later in the afternoon where I'm looking to score by laying off the favorites. On to the card...

Race One - #1 Omit The Dividend is unlikely to find a rabbit out front, which should help his chances. I like him in the mix for exotics - 6/1. #3 Cullen is on the improve. I like his workout pattern, his trainer is capable and his last out was nice. I have a nagging feeling he really wants to be on the grass to run his best though - 5/2. #7 Dr. Thunder, besides having a super-cool name, is the class here. Consistent figs, but where'd the speed from the fall of 2005 go? Marginally consistent effort from this one gets it done. I'm bugged a little bit by how he's been finishing lately, so if you need a reason to go another direction, there you go - 2/1.

DRF likes 3/6/1 here, CompuTrak says #1 and #6 are co-best bets, with 1/6/3 being the low oddsline horses.

Race Two - #1 Dual Diagnosis showed sustained pace for the first time last out. Consistent figs in the last two too. Workouts are just okay. If they run 1A instead of #1, forget we even had this conversation - 3/1. #4 She's A Sweetiepie is a false favorite. Figs are mediocre, but the trainer/jock combo has been really hot (50% winners together). The class drop should help, but I'm not that confident - 3/1. #5 Choir Lady has one race and one wire-to-wire win under her belt. I like that in a sprint, and I like her workouts too. She's got a trainer/jock combo with over 50% winners, and the trainer alone has been hot in 2006, sending almost 40% of his entries to the winner's circle - 5/2. #6 Money Card has been facing tougher allowance races and has posted decent figs in her efforts. Where'd her early speed she had go? - 7/2

DRF likes 5/7/6, CompuTrak makes 2B the pick, with 2B/5/1 the oddsline picks.

Race Three - #4 Outrageous Bill has the Michigan Gerry Bennett/TD Houghton connections, early speed in his workouts, and the trainer sends 21% of first-timers to the winner's circle - 3/1. #5 Howdy Pardner has sustained pace in a route three back, which I like for middling sprints with no obvious rabbits. Still, he's nothing more than interesting - 9/2. Play #4.

DRF likes 3/1/5, CompuTrak has no pick, but has 6/12/9 on the oddsline.

Race Four - #5 Shine Please graduates today. The trainer has been too ambitious to this point, and the class drop will really help - EVEN MONEY. #1 Run Runaway is interesting at 8/1 on the morning line. A step up isn't out of the question, and the trainer knows what he's doing putting the horse here. I like her in exotics for sure - 5/2.

DRF likes 7/5/4, while CT says play #1 (as if you needed more encouragement to do so), with 1/7/5 as the oddsline picks.

Race Five - #9 Picture Puzzle is an easy pick. Every factor says "win," including class, workout pattern and trainer competency - EVEN MONEY, but you may not get that at the windows. For the love of god, stay out of the place pool on this one. #3 La Rochelle is capable here, but I'm turned off by her regression in her workout pattern - 5/1.

DRF says 9/5/3, with #9 a best bet. CT disagrees and likes #3 as the pick, with 3/9/1 on the oddsline.

Race Six - #2 Mary Swan has two awful races in her last and can't seem to figure out where she wants to be on the pace. Ugh - 6/1. #4 Warison has a morning line of 7/2, and that's probably a bit too low for me. 10-12 in the money lifetime, but last out was awful. If you're playing her, it's the second-off-layoff angle that has you intrigued. She was capable a year ago. I'd like to see a good effort before I endorse - 4/1. #8 Simply Fancy won at class and distance two back, improved, and now returns to a place where she nearly scored. I like another consistent effort here - 2/1. #9 Clever Trixie has a nice ability to rate off the pace and close. She ran real wide out of the turn last out and still rallied strong, which earns her bonus points with me - 7/2.

DRF says 2/4/8, CT makes #8 the pick, with 1/8/9 on the oddsline.

Race Seven - #3 Just One More has a lousy trainer, but I liked the 1/1/06 effort down the stretch. However, none of his competition aside from the winner has graduated since, which discounts how "good" that race really looked - 7/2. #7 Mambo Master has nothing to get too excited about at 9/5, other than a lot of unknowns among the rest of the runners. He's classy, well-bred, and has hung good figs two and three back. Workouts are just okay. I say play to beat him if you can't get a price - 2/1. #8 Premeditated had a good race in early December, but do you want to bet a possible pacesetter on the grass over a mile and an eighth? Me either - 4/1. If I'm guessing (and that's all this is), I say chase either #4 Mr. Jones as a first-time starter, or #8 as options aside from Mambo Master.

DRF likes 8/6/3, while CT says #10 is the pick, with 10/6/8 on the oddsline.

Race Eight - #1 Preach It has a lot to like. Two very consistent efforts in her last, and those figs would be competitive here. Is working and racing, which you can't say for a lot of the long laid off contenders here. Should get a good price on this one - 5/2. #5 Sunset Kisses is 5/2 on the morning line? Come on. The trainer is very capable, and the percentages charting her success don't lie, but she (the horse) would need a very strong improvement off a long layoff to score - 6/1. #6 Julie's Prize has had a long, long layoff as well. However, she's shown a history of coming off a layoff with a strong effort, and is 7-8 in the money with six wins at this distance, most of them stakes races. Like this one a lot - 8/5.

DRF says 1 (a best bet)/6/4, with CT posting 3/9/4 on the oddsline.

Race Nine - #2 Yes My Lady has a mother named "No Fat Chicks." God bless America. Ran a good effort last out, think this is a return to her form. Lots to like - 7/2. #3 Perfect Connection is real interesting. Found a pretty fast turf track last out and the fractions - specifically in the stretch - were very solid. Great workouts leading up. A longer shot, but interesting - 4/1. #4 Secret Conquest had a great one last out as well. Held her spot relative to the pace the entire race. I'm not sure if her last was a peak performance, but I'm suspecting it might be - 8/1. #8 Dynaquoit had a great last race (sensing a theme?), but hers was a minor regression off her maiden win performance. I like the "zig zag" pattern here, where a best is followed by a half step back, then a full step forward. So that's best plus a half a step net. She should stay closer to the pace, which will really help - 5/2. #10 Destiny's Say has steadily improved and is rounding into form. Can't ignore here either - 3/1.

DRF says 8 (best bet)/10/2, CT makes #3 the pick with 3/8/6 on the oddsline.

Race Ten - You will never in a million years get me to bet on #3 Message Of A Myth. This is a classic bounce horse who hung a wildly out of character career best last out, I expect a big regression. Don't be surprised if she finished well back of the winner - 10/1. #6 Show Us The Check is 15/1 on the morning line? Why? This might be the longshot play of the day, as far as I'm concerned. You've got to like the pacesetter type in a sprint, and I love the graduation out of $16K N3L class two back. Form darkening egg on the turf in her last, now she gets back to what she's good at - 5/2. #5 Embraceable You is the class here. She'll stalk the pace and a consistent effort gets it done - EVEN MONEY.

DRF says 5/3/10, CT makes 3/10/6 the oddsline picks.

Race Eleven - #1 Aizarunner is a little interesting, but I'd like to see a step forward before I endorse. Might zig-zag into a decent race here, but where does that put him on the Beyer figs? 76? I'm not sure that gets it done - 5/1. #2 Scottago is another zig-zag type, but I expect it from this one. 33% wins in his career over this distance, so you have to believe he'll contend - 5/2. #4 Farnum Alley is a horse once thought to be a Kentucky Derby type, but that wasn't in the cards. I think he's taken to the turf well, can stalk the pace and fire late. That's a great formula for a solid horse in this spot - 2/1. #5 O'Malley is an exotics-only contender, but I think he likes the grass enough to be included in your exacta/trifecta plays - 5/1.

DRF says 2/1/4, CT makes #10 a pick, with 10/7/4 on the oddsline.

Race Twelve - #10 AJ's Coal Bed should win this easily. Huge Beyer advantage - 4/5. #6 Alie's Dolly seems to look decent on paper, but do you want to bet on a horse who's trainer is 1-93 on the grass? Me neither - 7/1.

DRF picks 10 (best bet) /8/6, with CT making #5 a pick and 5/10/6 on the oddsline.

Good luck today. Bet like a champion.

Crash Course In Handicapping: Volume One - Maiden Class

Simply put, a "maiden" is a horse of either sex and any age that has not won a race in its lifetime. Since horses do not begin to race until, at earliest, the summer of their two-year-old (from here, all ages abbreviated as "2YO," "3YO," etc.) season, the textures of a race restricted to younger horses (2YO, 3YO) will usually vary wildly with those of a maiden race for 4YO horses and up. MCL, or "Maiden Claiming" races are of a lower level and class than MSW, or "Maiden Special Weight." MCL graduates tend to move forward into claiming or allowance class, while MSW entrants who improve rapidly and "break" their maiden without struggling through the ranks may become allowance or stakes-capable horses.

The fundamental keys to unlocking these races are seasoning, training and breeding.

Think of seasoning as you would in cooking terms. There are some ingredients of such high quality that the taste delivers on expectations from the instant the unimproved morsel hits your mouth, while other items take preparation and nurturing to deliver on the promise of flavor. It's much the same in maiden races. While there are certainly shooting-star performances from an unraced horse that happen all the time, most horses come in to their racing careers needing on-track experience to find their way to the winner's circle.

Aside from the fact that every horse can't win every race, there are a variety of reasons a maiden may need more than one outing to produce a win. The trainer may have been overly ambitious in early outings, placing the horse among tougher competition than they are capable of beating. The trainer may not recognize the horse's preferences right away either. Some horses are duds on dirt but find their run on the grass, and vice versa. Some horses just cannot run more than six furlongs effectively, while others may look horrible at any distance shorter than a mile. A horse may fight the jockey's intentions in an early outing or two as well, running too fast (early), too slow or too wide to be competitive. Maybe the class has two or more superior horses that need to graduate before he can move forward, or maybe the horse just needs a couple of outings to spark his true ability to the front.

Regardless, most horses will not break their maiden in their first effort. This is not necessarily a knock on their abilities or a bad sign for their future, even if it's a high-priced colt racing against what seem to be inferior horses. It may take a race or three for the horse with the highest of expectations to produce, whether it's finding the right distance, class or field to where he can fire his best effort.

So what gets a horse ready to move forward? Training. Trainers are the head coaches in this sport, the ones that set the gameplan and hope to execute winning strategies for the team. For lightly or unraced horses, our first clue into the trainer's head comes via the workout tabs.

With some exceptions, most horses work out in the early morning hours at the track or a nearby "training center" under the watchful (excuse the pun) eye of a "clocker." Clockers are paid representatives of various data services (such as Equibase, BRIS, The Daily Racing Form) who record the various workout times and distances for horses (of all sorts, not just maidens) on the track that particular morning. While it's undeniably true that a horse that "puts up a bullet" (runs an exceptionally fast workout, usually the best time for the distance of any horse working out that day) may be showing strong form, it's usually more important that a horse in the maiden ranks is working out than how fast he's running in those workouts.

Why? When a horseplayer refers to a horse's "form," he's referring to an abstract and totally subjective evaluation of the horse's fitness as it pertains to the competition he's likely to be facing. A horse that was competitive in $10,000 claiming class in June that can't find anything but last place in $5K claiming company in October is likely to be in "bad form." A horse that shows logical competitive steps from $10K to $25K claiming company over the course of a few months without missing a beat is in "good form."

Maidens may or may not have enough races under their belt to effectively state that their form is "good" or "bad" compared to the competition. This is where workouts come in to play. A series of good and logical workouts leading up to a race can indicate a horse is "rounding into form." Lackluster work tabs after a rough go in their first outing can be seen as entirely the opposite. As mentioned, the concept of form is entirely subjective. A trainer may have found that working a horse hard enough to show a good time is detrimental to an upcoming race, or he may have put the horse in an entirely unwinnable position in his last race, hoping to have the jockey teach the horse something new.

The subjective nature of "form," particularly with lightly raced maiden horses, is somewhere between "the eyeball test" and rocket science. One of the common strategies for divining form in maiden races (specifically 2YO and early 3YO horses) is to interpret the data through the prism of breeding.

I truly know next-to-nothing in specific regarding this angle. However, a studious dataminer could find angles to play regarding sires or dams that pass along aptitude towards a specific distance or surface, or spawn a greater percentage of first-time-starter winners than the competition. Regardless, there are some things the untrained and inexperienced horseplayer can identify on the form that may provide clues to the horse's capability. We'll get into those below.

How To Integrate These Keys Into Your Handicapping

2YO and 3YO-Restricted Maiden Races

DIRT SPRINTS (Up to 7.5 furlongs)

Dirt sprints are the most common maiden races, as many trainers see a six- or seven-furlong sprint as a natural first stepping stone out of three, four and five-furlong workouts.

DIRT ROUTES (One mile or longer)

Many desireable studs and dams for the thoroughbred industry come from "Classic" distance stock. In other words, these bloodlines are from Kentucky Derby type runners who are bred to route over a mile plus.

TURF SPRINTS (Up to 7.5 furlongs)

Reasonably uncommon, but still out there. I like to see a horse can capably run on the turf and as a pacestalker before I'm willing to back them with my dollars.

TURF ROUTES (One mile or longer)

For my money, these are the easiest of the bunch to find the winner on paper. You not only want to look for surface aptitude and a horse that can handle the distance, but you also want to find a horse that's comfortable rating off the pace and closing in fast fractions. That's a learned skill, and more so than any of the above listed races, jockey performance is a key indicator.

What do you want to look for on the program to pick a winner?

Seasoning

Has the horse raced before?

Obviously, you'd like to see that the horse has raced once or twice, and that he has capably and competitively handled the distance and surface the trainer's asking him to run today. With younger horses, especially in the MCL classes, this is crucial. In the MSW classes you'll more often see a well-bred, well-trained first-time starter do well, as better horses tend to start there.

Is today's class and distance a step up, down, or straight across for him?

If the horse looked inexplicably atrocious last out in the same class, don't play him. If he looked inexplicably atrocious last out in a higher class, you're going to have to look to find another reason to play or toss him. With a young horse who's lightly raced, I'm more likely to believe a change in class or distance will lead to the horse running a better race if the trainer has a good record. I trust that a good trainer knows what he's doing taking a router down to a sprint, or a MSW horse down to $12.5K claiming company. Otherwise, you'd ideally like to see a horse doing the same thing he did last time, with a solid workout or two in between. With most capable trainers, that pattern spells "improvement."

Is the horse improving?

When you're looking at a complete history of a horse's past performances, and those performances only stretch over two to five races, improvement patterns are easy to spot. You want to look for speed figures that are improving, but not by enormous amounts. You want to see a horse that has seemingly figured out its running style, and has improved his finishing position. You want to look at workouts to make sure the horse is running and staying in shape. It's terribly obvious when you're looking at a loser, even with only three races to his credit. What you need to find is a horse that ran a race last out that was recognizably better than his race two back, with a trainer that's asking him to do the same things he's been getting better at. Even as an abstract principle, that's an easy thing to see on paper.

Is a seemingly competitive horse facing a bunch of horses who haven't raced before?

In most cases, especially in the MCL levels, I will automatically discount the chances of a horse running for the first time against a horse that has run at the same class/distance with a pattern of improvement and success behind him.

Seasoning Angles
· Horses that finished second last time out (especially in the same class/distance) are more likely to move forward.
· Horses that have a reasonably substantial positive gap between their recent Beyer Speed Figure and the figures posted historically by the rest of the field are likely winners.
· A horse that flashed sustained early speed (led the race through nearly the whole thing) for the first time in their last is a good bet in their next in a sprint on the dirt.
· A horse that comes out of a "key race," or one that returns two or more winners into their next races, is likely to show a great deal of improvement compared to their last finish.
· A horse that has raced competitively in this class/distance/surface combination has a decided advantage over an unraced horse in nearly every case.
· A horse that only needs to marginally improve to score, who has shown a logical and measured pattern of improvement in recent months can often be counted on to improve if he's being asked to do the same things he's already proven he's been learning already.

Training

Is the horse being asked to do something he's done before?

Too many terrible trainers throw random darts looking to hit the bullseye by guessing if the horse will take to the grass, or dial back to a sprint or whatever. While you do have to give credit to a successful trainer (at any level, not just Todd Pletcher and his competition) who looks to be taking a horse in a different direction, that doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be a successful tactic the first (or any) time out. If a relatively green horse is entered in a wildly opposite race from any of his previous, he should probably be discounted at the windows.

Does it look like the trainer has a plan for the horse?

As a corollary to the above, I want to see a trainer who knows what he's doing. Whether it's a class drop that's needed to get the win, or a pattern of workouts designed to help an early rocket find his endurance, the trainer's intentions are often easy to see in a lightly-raced horse. Some things may look odd on paper, such as a 6F workout five days prior to a sprint on the dirt. It's odd to see a horse move from sprint to route and back (or vice versa), so take as much as you can from who is behind the moves. If it's a small-potatoes trainer with a 2% win percentage? I'm willing to believe he's over his head and struggling. If it's one of the big names at the track? They land the owners with the good horses and they generally have a good idea as to what they're doing - even with the most unseasoned of horses.

Has the horse been working out?

An older horse, even in the MCL ranks as a 4YO or 5YO, may not need workouts between races. I almost uniformly demand them of the horses I back in MCL/MSW class. A good rule of thumb is that you should see work on a ten-day (or less) basis for the past 60 days. Minimum. This does include races in which the horse has run. Sometimes the workout tab may look sparse, which may mean the horse has been working out remotely or privately - or possibly not at all. I try to avoid the gut feeling I'm being duped by a devious trainer and move to the next horse on the list.

Do the quality of the workouts tell you anything?

Absolutely. But context is the key. What looks like a middling time of :40 for a 3F workout at Tampa wouldn't be enough to put a horse in the top 25 times for the day. But if the trainer backs it up with a couple of sharper times at 4F or 5F before race day, you're probably looking at a horse who isn't going to want the lead, and is being conditioned to rate from off the pace. If the 4F and 5F workout times are solid, the 3F time doesn't end up meaning anything specific, beyond the trainer's intention to spare the horse an eighth of a mile that morning. What you want to look for on workout times are improvements. If a young horse who was posting :39.6 for 3F and all of a sudden wakes up two weeks later with a :38.2? Take notice. If he's already shown he can stalk from just off the pace and doesn't lose ground in the stretch, I'd be willing to believe that workout bullet could put him over the top and in the winner's circle. Since there's a great deal of difference between tracks and days, I won't bother quoting par times for workouts. They do all come accompanied by a positional ranking for that morning, such as 18/32, or eighteenth fastest out of thirty-two. Considering there could be all sorts of allowance, high claiming and stakes horses on the track working out too, don't put too much stock in what 23/33 really means. Find a context through which to interpret those results, and use that to make a good decision.

Training Angles
· A horse that has set pace in a sprint and held it nearly the whole race may do the same with more success when asked to run farther.
· Workouts at 3F are intended to sharpen the horse's early speed. 4F work is a general run for most horses, while 5F work is designed to increase endurance. Take a look at where the horse has been showing weaknesses previously, and match a workout to what the trainer might be looking to fix. If it makes sense, and the workouts are solid for the horse's skill level, improvement might be in the cards.
· Look for a pattern of improvement in workouts, and if you see it there it has a good chance of translating to race day as well.
· A good trainer knows how to get a horse ready for an unusual situation better than a bad one.
· A young or lightly-raced horse that's both working out and racing has an advantage over a young or lightly-raced horse that has only been racing.

Breeding

As mentioned, this is not an area where I have any expertise. A few rules of thumb I use are below. These are not pass/fail indicators as much as they are possible tie-breakers for decision making.

Breeding Angles
· Most programs will tell you how much a horse's breeding charge was, or how much he was purchased for at auction. These numbers can clumsily be used to determine if a horse is "classier" than another.
· In an MSW race with very few races under anyone's belt, I believe the more expensive (classier) horses have an edge.
· If you (the weekend horseplayer) recognize the name of the sire, chances are that's a Kentucky Derby type "Classic" distance runner. Many of these horses may perform solidly in routes on the dirt.
· The indicators "ARG," "IRE," "GB," "FRA," and others are indicative of foreign-born/bred horses. Since turf racing is more prevalent than dirt racing in other parts of the world, I give marginal bonus credit to horses on turf with foreign blood in their lines.

Maiden Races for 4YO and Up

Most of the same rules apply from above, but with a few distinctions. First, older horses are less likely to be facing a field of totally inexperienced horses. Therefore, handicapping these races allows more of an apples-to-apples comparison, particularly using Beyer figures and indicators of consistency or improvement. Second, you'll run into more obvious horses to cross of the list when you're able to look at consistency/class/speed differences in horses with races to their credit.

Angles To Add To The List
· Regardless as to how far a class drop a horse is making, if he's gone without a win for a "significant" amount of races, I label him a "bridesmaid," toss him from win pool consideration and move on. Certainly these horses will win some of the time, but I will not waste my money on a horse that has taken 20-25 races to find the winner's circle, no matter how good he looks on paper.
· Finding horses exiting "key races" and showing speed figure improvement becomes easier and more effective when class and speed can be compared across multiple lines with multiple horses.
· There is less of an "anything can happen" feeling to these affairs, with a horse that looks like the obvious favorite probably crossing the line first in most cases.
· A horse that ran competitively in strong MSW class on another circuit, laid off for 60+ days, and returns to a lesser circuit in MCL class is often a strong bet.
· While looking at recent performance remains important, if a horse is returning to a distance or surface where he showed aptitude at an earlier point of his career, it is worth considering why he was moved to begin with, if he learned anything useful, and what sort of effort he'd have to produce in order to replicate or improve upon that earlier effort.

While you absolutely want to utilize any and all tools you can learn to use properly to dissect a race, this should be enough to get you started with maiden racing. If any better handicappers than I have anything to add, please do feel free to comment. Any help I can steer towards those of my friends willing to learn is cool by me.