Picks for Tampa Bay Downs, 03/11/06

ONE:

#1 SOCIETY SAM is a contender, especially if he can find January's form. He's malleable to any pace scenario, which is worth bonus points in my book - 3/1

#2 IRISH ROGUE needs to improve speed to contend. All recent wins are in restricted claiming class, which I discount - 5/1

#5 TAKKI TSUNAMI is likely to be overbet, but a zig zag improve to a mid 70s fig isn't out of the question. Like the close stalk trip he's likely to get, and think this is a good spot - 4/1

#6 PRECEPTOR is outclassed and can't finish. Pass - 6/1

#7 KID QUIXOTE is rounding back into form and his speed is more than adequate. He'll run up close and I think that'll benefit and allow him to score - 2/1

#8 WHAT A SHOCKER flattened out in 8500CLM last out, which is like two steps north of this class here. I think if he can regain his closing burst, he'll be fine here - 2/1

#9 DREAMIN OF GREEN had a month off, but will probably hang another middling effort. Was improving, did step up, and now what? Pass - 6/1

TWO:

#1 ROSE CREEK has come off layoffs sharp in the past and has plenty of speed to contend. Like her from off the pace - 2/1

#2 HOHO TOW is trained by Barbara McBride, and she knows what she's doing. This horse is on the improve and I don't see a furious pace that would hurt her - 9/5

#3 MUSKETRY is taking a step down in class, but that doesn't matter if you can't close - 5/1

#4 CLEANING HOUSE would need a hotter pace to factor - 9/2

#9 YASOU NIKO can improve, but how much? He gets the sensible pace he needs and could control it up front. Might be a little underrated here - 4/1

THREE:

#1 ROME IS BURNING would be great on the 2nd off angle were he being trained by someone strong. Right class/spot to improve though - 9/2

#3 MAN MADE is probably using this as a glorified workout. I like his class and the fact that he's a router who can close, plus he's been working out strong. Can't toss him out - 7/2

#4 GET OUTTA DODGE will respond well to being dialed back in distance. Wondering, though, if the price will be agreeable - 7/2

#7 SMILEWITHPLEASURE has a good shot here. I like the stalk trip and success at this level. He hasn't gotten past #12 previously though - 5/2

#8 BRIEFTON can score, but I can't get excited when the last out looks so atrocious - 5/1

#9 INDIA SUN is a classy horse that will stalk the pace. This is a curious tag drop first off a claim for an obvious contender, but I can't not consider this horse on that alone - 5/2

#12 CERTAM SWEEP seems to be coming around, and has had success at this level - 3/1

FOUR:

#4 KIP TO MY LU in a totally paceless race will likely take the lead and control it easily up front. She's been steadily improving, and I think restricted claiming class helps her find her form - 3/1

#5 MAGIC LINE has an interesting recent pattern. Ciardullo ran this sprinter in a route, then chased it with a 3F bullet workout a few days ago. I'm afraid this horse will be wildly overbet, I think 2/1 is fair, but I'm looking for a little more - 5/2

#6 CONCERTA gets Umana back, and her last few have been run at a quick clip. This pace scenario looks to suit her chances better. I like an improve - 2/1

#9 TOOSMARTSWEETHEART can't be endorsed as a deep closer in a paceless sprint - 6/1

#12 CONFIDENT HEART features Deborah Artz training 5-12 winners with her first time starters. She's worked out well and wouldn't have to reach too far back to find her form. Real interesting - 4/1

FIVE:

#4 INTRIGUING PROSPECT is worth a flier at a big price. The trainer/jock connections are in place - 8/1

#7 PORTRAIT OF A LADY is a first time starter with a recent workout on turf, which is a good sign. She's super classy out of AP Indy, the trainer is 31% on turf, 20% in this class, 25% with first time starters and 60% with Lezcano. Worth a play - 7/2

#8 DAZED is almost impossible to bet against. Irish filly trained by Bill Mott on turf? Love her last, and she shouldn't run into problems here either - 2/1

#5 SAND DREAM is an improving filly who took well to the grass. Has some class and a real shot - 7/2

#2 PRINCESS MARQUETRY is a horse I'm hoping is forgotten in the rush to bet #8 at the window. Best Beyer in the field last out, and unignorable - 2/1

#1 RUN WITH THE SPIRIT stuck in my craw. Play high for fun - 12/1

SIX:

#3 ICY FORTUNE has a long and steady pattern of improvement. Must include in exotics - 9/2

#4 LITTLE ARSON ANNIE has two wins in this class this year already, and her last out for a $12,500 tag is forgiveable - 2/1

#5 SHARENSKI can, but will she? - 5/1

#6 ALEXANDRIA VICTORIA will have a nice price on an improving filly. Worth a look for sure. Has held her speed much better over the last two - 4/1

#7 TRICKY SANDS might have been privately reacquired by the owner (who is also the trainer and breeder) after being claimed two back. I think that's a good sign, and I'll toss the last as a result - 2/1

#11 SUMMER BROOK can't be ignored. The last was the obligatory tag jump post-claim, but I still think she's a longshot - 6/1

SEVEN:

#1 BEAU CLASSIC has the Houghton/GBennett connection I love, and the horse is taking a slight tag drop. He's putting up solid efforts at the distance/surface over his last two - 5/2

#2 CHARISMATIC ROB is an inconsistent horse, but his pattern says he's a contender. Look for a solid jump, but I don't think even that puts him across first - 9/2

#4 MAJOR PARKER is a horse I've won a ton on, and the price will be right again. He's capable - 5/1

#7 PROFESSOR BIGGS has consistency and a closing style, and really should like the extra sixteenth here. He's really responding under Waunsch - 2/1

#8 SOVEREIGN HONOR has Lezcano aboard, who ditched #7 to ride this one. He's winless since August 2004 though, and inconsistent this year so far - 5/1

#9 QUITE THE GUY won at 13/1 at this distance/surface last out, but is relatively unexciting here - 4/1

#10 STREAMLINE should respond getting back on the grass - 3/1

EIGHT:

#3 TAP DAY has four huge figures in a row if you're willing to toss that ship to Japan. I am. He's been working strong and won this race last year. Huge - 2/1

#4 SEEK GOLD didn't like the slop last out, but should respond better here. Can't see him crossing first though - 5/1

#6 ANDIAMO is a horse I love. He's kicking ass, keeps hanging bullets, and should be priced right - 5/2

#11 ON THIN ICE should duel up front with Andiamo. Workouts are very solid, and this distance suits him - 3/1

#13 MIDNIGHT ARRIVAL (alternate entry) will get a play for me above 8/1 if he's in

NINE:

#4 SPIDER THE GLIDER will be in the mix. A win isn't out of the question - 5/1

#5 KING CASSIA is 6-9 crossing first lately. Very consistent. Wants the pace and should get it. Huge - 8/5

#7 ADMIRAL LANCE won at this class/distance two back, and is primed to replicate the effort - 5/2

#8 CHATHAM STRAIT is a classy colt with a capable trainer. Finished behind #7 last out with a solid closing burst. I like an improve - 5/2

TEN:

#1 EL GRAN MARCO finished October great and laid off since. Posted a bullet in mid February, and Joan Scott is 2-3 this year bringing a horse off 61-180 days. A shot - 9/2

#2 GUMBA is sprinting? No thanks - 6/1

#3 COUNTRY MOGGIE is running first Lasix and has huge workouts lately, including a bullet on Wednesday. Love a big improve - 2/1

#4 ONLYNURIMAGINATION is consistent across surfaces and two for two lately. Like a ton - 8/5

#6 SARATOGA JULES is 2-2 lately as well, if you want to count the recent DQ. A progression puts him in the mix - 4/1

#11 COOGAMONGA has the Houghton/Bennett connex and will probably be a decent price come post time. This is a former Ziadie sprinter, albeit briefly, and his last two aren't spectacular. That could change - 7/2

ELEVEN:

#2 SPECIAL FORCES has four straight place efforts in this class and close, but is 3-39 lifetime. Hard to ignore, harder to endorse - 9/2

#5 RUBY DO might be a longshot special. Blinkers come off after a rough go last out. Had plenty of speed in the fall, maybe the equipment change wakes him up - 5/1

#9 WESTERN NIGHT is a third time starter and the likely pace. He can definitely go wire-to-wire - 2/1

#12 HE'S MY MAN comes out of a win in what is a fairly tough $8500CLM class here, so the stalking trip he had is impressive in my eyes. He's also three for his last three - 8/5

TWELVE:

There is no possible way to bet against #6 MISS LAKEN. Any price north of EVEN MONEY is totally playable