Tampa Bay Downs Picks, 3/4/06

Not a terribly exciting early half of the card, I like a lot of chalk up front. That being said, there are a few races later in the afternoon where I'm looking to score by laying off the favorites. On to the card...

Race One - #1 Omit The Dividend is unlikely to find a rabbit out front, which should help his chances. I like him in the mix for exotics - 6/1. #3 Cullen is on the improve. I like his workout pattern, his trainer is capable and his last out was nice. I have a nagging feeling he really wants to be on the grass to run his best though - 5/2. #7 Dr. Thunder, besides having a super-cool name, is the class here. Consistent figs, but where'd the speed from the fall of 2005 go? Marginally consistent effort from this one gets it done. I'm bugged a little bit by how he's been finishing lately, so if you need a reason to go another direction, there you go - 2/1.

DRF likes 3/6/1 here, CompuTrak says #1 and #6 are co-best bets, with 1/6/3 being the low oddsline horses.

Race Two - #1 Dual Diagnosis showed sustained pace for the first time last out. Consistent figs in the last two too. Workouts are just okay. If they run 1A instead of #1, forget we even had this conversation - 3/1. #4 She's A Sweetiepie is a false favorite. Figs are mediocre, but the trainer/jock combo has been really hot (50% winners together). The class drop should help, but I'm not that confident - 3/1. #5 Choir Lady has one race and one wire-to-wire win under her belt. I like that in a sprint, and I like her workouts too. She's got a trainer/jock combo with over 50% winners, and the trainer alone has been hot in 2006, sending almost 40% of his entries to the winner's circle - 5/2. #6 Money Card has been facing tougher allowance races and has posted decent figs in her efforts. Where'd her early speed she had go? - 7/2

DRF likes 5/7/6, CompuTrak makes 2B the pick, with 2B/5/1 the oddsline picks.

Race Three - #4 Outrageous Bill has the Michigan Gerry Bennett/TD Houghton connections, early speed in his workouts, and the trainer sends 21% of first-timers to the winner's circle - 3/1. #5 Howdy Pardner has sustained pace in a route three back, which I like for middling sprints with no obvious rabbits. Still, he's nothing more than interesting - 9/2. Play #4.

DRF likes 3/1/5, CompuTrak has no pick, but has 6/12/9 on the oddsline.

Race Four - #5 Shine Please graduates today. The trainer has been too ambitious to this point, and the class drop will really help - EVEN MONEY. #1 Run Runaway is interesting at 8/1 on the morning line. A step up isn't out of the question, and the trainer knows what he's doing putting the horse here. I like her in exotics for sure - 5/2.

DRF likes 7/5/4, while CT says play #1 (as if you needed more encouragement to do so), with 1/7/5 as the oddsline picks.

Race Five - #9 Picture Puzzle is an easy pick. Every factor says "win," including class, workout pattern and trainer competency - EVEN MONEY, but you may not get that at the windows. For the love of god, stay out of the place pool on this one. #3 La Rochelle is capable here, but I'm turned off by her regression in her workout pattern - 5/1.

DRF says 9/5/3, with #9 a best bet. CT disagrees and likes #3 as the pick, with 3/9/1 on the oddsline.

Race Six - #2 Mary Swan has two awful races in her last and can't seem to figure out where she wants to be on the pace. Ugh - 6/1. #4 Warison has a morning line of 7/2, and that's probably a bit too low for me. 10-12 in the money lifetime, but last out was awful. If you're playing her, it's the second-off-layoff angle that has you intrigued. She was capable a year ago. I'd like to see a good effort before I endorse - 4/1. #8 Simply Fancy won at class and distance two back, improved, and now returns to a place where she nearly scored. I like another consistent effort here - 2/1. #9 Clever Trixie has a nice ability to rate off the pace and close. She ran real wide out of the turn last out and still rallied strong, which earns her bonus points with me - 7/2.

DRF says 2/4/8, CT makes #8 the pick, with 1/8/9 on the oddsline.

Race Seven - #3 Just One More has a lousy trainer, but I liked the 1/1/06 effort down the stretch. However, none of his competition aside from the winner has graduated since, which discounts how "good" that race really looked - 7/2. #7 Mambo Master has nothing to get too excited about at 9/5, other than a lot of unknowns among the rest of the runners. He's classy, well-bred, and has hung good figs two and three back. Workouts are just okay. I say play to beat him if you can't get a price - 2/1. #8 Premeditated had a good race in early December, but do you want to bet a possible pacesetter on the grass over a mile and an eighth? Me either - 4/1. If I'm guessing (and that's all this is), I say chase either #4 Mr. Jones as a first-time starter, or #8 as options aside from Mambo Master.

DRF likes 8/6/3, while CT says #10 is the pick, with 10/6/8 on the oddsline.

Race Eight - #1 Preach It has a lot to like. Two very consistent efforts in her last, and those figs would be competitive here. Is working and racing, which you can't say for a lot of the long laid off contenders here. Should get a good price on this one - 5/2. #5 Sunset Kisses is 5/2 on the morning line? Come on. The trainer is very capable, and the percentages charting her success don't lie, but she (the horse) would need a very strong improvement off a long layoff to score - 6/1. #6 Julie's Prize has had a long, long layoff as well. However, she's shown a history of coming off a layoff with a strong effort, and is 7-8 in the money with six wins at this distance, most of them stakes races. Like this one a lot - 8/5.

DRF says 1 (a best bet)/6/4, with CT posting 3/9/4 on the oddsline.

Race Nine - #2 Yes My Lady has a mother named "No Fat Chicks." God bless America. Ran a good effort last out, think this is a return to her form. Lots to like - 7/2. #3 Perfect Connection is real interesting. Found a pretty fast turf track last out and the fractions - specifically in the stretch - were very solid. Great workouts leading up. A longer shot, but interesting - 4/1. #4 Secret Conquest had a great one last out as well. Held her spot relative to the pace the entire race. I'm not sure if her last was a peak performance, but I'm suspecting it might be - 8/1. #8 Dynaquoit had a great last race (sensing a theme?), but hers was a minor regression off her maiden win performance. I like the "zig zag" pattern here, where a best is followed by a half step back, then a full step forward. So that's best plus a half a step net. She should stay closer to the pace, which will really help - 5/2. #10 Destiny's Say has steadily improved and is rounding into form. Can't ignore here either - 3/1.

DRF says 8 (best bet)/10/2, CT makes #3 the pick with 3/8/6 on the oddsline.

Race Ten - You will never in a million years get me to bet on #3 Message Of A Myth. This is a classic bounce horse who hung a wildly out of character career best last out, I expect a big regression. Don't be surprised if she finished well back of the winner - 10/1. #6 Show Us The Check is 15/1 on the morning line? Why? This might be the longshot play of the day, as far as I'm concerned. You've got to like the pacesetter type in a sprint, and I love the graduation out of $16K N3L class two back. Form darkening egg on the turf in her last, now she gets back to what she's good at - 5/2. #5 Embraceable You is the class here. She'll stalk the pace and a consistent effort gets it done - EVEN MONEY.

DRF says 5/3/10, CT makes 3/10/6 the oddsline picks.

Race Eleven - #1 Aizarunner is a little interesting, but I'd like to see a step forward before I endorse. Might zig-zag into a decent race here, but where does that put him on the Beyer figs? 76? I'm not sure that gets it done - 5/1. #2 Scottago is another zig-zag type, but I expect it from this one. 33% wins in his career over this distance, so you have to believe he'll contend - 5/2. #4 Farnum Alley is a horse once thought to be a Kentucky Derby type, but that wasn't in the cards. I think he's taken to the turf well, can stalk the pace and fire late. That's a great formula for a solid horse in this spot - 2/1. #5 O'Malley is an exotics-only contender, but I think he likes the grass enough to be included in your exacta/trifecta plays - 5/1.

DRF says 2/1/4, CT makes #10 a pick, with 10/7/4 on the oddsline.

Race Twelve - #10 AJ's Coal Bed should win this easily. Huge Beyer advantage - 4/5. #6 Alie's Dolly seems to look decent on paper, but do you want to bet on a horse who's trainer is 1-93 on the grass? Me neither - 7/1.

DRF picks 10 (best bet) /8/6, with CT making #5 a pick and 5/10/6 on the oddsline.

Good luck today. Bet like a champion.