Tampa Bay Downs 4/15/06

CJ and I are picking the card independently, here's a look at both our picks, along with a tout sheet I bought online ($10) and the CompuTrak picks. Should I be frightened that with all this agreement between the picks that I'm going to lose a TON of money today? Fuck.

Race 1:

CJ
#3 Sweet Devil
#6 Little Bit Foolish
#7 Captain Zones

BG
#3 Sweet Devil 9/5
#7 Captain Zones 5/2
#6 Little Bit Foolish 3/1

EXPERT
#6 Little Bit Foolish
#3 Sweet Devil
#10 Notafigment

COMPUTRAK: #6 is the Pick, 6/3/12 top three

Sweet Devil is 6/1 on the ML. Notafigment runs first with Lasix today. The expert says on Little Bit Foolish, "Will most likely compete strongly in the early speed battle which bodes well with this group of animals. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of very good win percentage - 19 percent - at this distance & surface. Should definitely be given a chance in this event if only for the very strong speed figure posted in the last contest."

Race 2:

CJ
#1 Windsor Dickens
#8 Rocky Plains
#7 Caper On Holme

BG
#3 Inda Caton / #8 Rocky Plains 5/2
#7 Caper On Holme 7/2
#2 Savannah's Wish 4/1

EXPERT
#6 Angel By Day
#5 Sun Stroke
#7 Caper On Holme

COMPUTRAK: #8 is the pick, 8/1/2 top three

I think Inda Caton is on the improve, and has the second-off layoff factor (trainer 19%) going for him. Rocky Plains is also improving, and the trainer is a capable guy who sees enough in his condition to turn him around on a two week schedule. I like Windsor Dickens dropping from unrestricted class here, and his workout schedule has been solid, but you're banking on this horse coming off his layoff strong enough here, and I just don't know that I want to play that angle with this one. His morning line is 2/1 and I've got him at 9/2 - which I'll admit is probably too high. I don't think you're going to get Dickens as a value play.

Race 3:

CJ
#10 Hamlin
#6 Success Affirmed
#3 Edgerson

BG
#10 Hamlin EVEN MONEY

EXPERT
#13 Roster Man (alternate entry)
#14 Rockit Man (alternate entry)
#10 Hamlin

COMPUTRAK: #10 is the pick, 10/3/2 top three

I'm going to need to see at least 9/5 on this horse to make a play, and his morning line is 5/2 so maybe I'll get it. The rest of the field is a disappointing collection of never-gonna-bes. The "expert" seems to ignore the horses most likely to run in this race, going instead with the likely scratches. Great.

Race 4:

CJ
#2 Bye Bye Ladies
#6 Stormy Babe
#10 Diamond Fire

BG
#2 Bye Bye Ladies 6/5
#9 Mysteriousness 7/2
#10 Diamond Fire / #11 Mistress Raj 4/1

EXPERT
#6 Stormy Babe
#2 Bye Bye Ladies
#4 I'm an Evil One

COMPUTRAK: #2 is the pick, 10/2/6 top three

Bye Bye has a recent bullet and a capable trainer who knows what to do with sprints. I can see a solid step forward here. Stormy Babe I have at 5/1, fifth best on my board. I think it's encouraging she's not a career loser like my second choice Mysteriousness, but I'm discouraged that the trainer keeps changing the jockey (fifth different across last five), and he's not a real capable guy himself. Could she score here? Sure. I just have too many doubts. Mistress Raj will be an interesting horse to look at, as I'm betting she's going to hang close to the pace and could find a way to factor off those 20/1 odds. Call it a gut feeling, nothing more.

Race 5:

CJ
#10 Hup Two
#8 Shucks
#3 Hots Is Hot

BG
#3 Hots Is Hot 2/1
#8 Shucks 3/1
#10 Hup Two / #1 Volcanic Force 7/2

EXPERT
#10 Hup Two
#3 Hots Is Hot
#8 Shucks

COMPUTRAK: no pick, 8/11/9 top three

Not a ton of disagreement here, but don't ignore Volcanic Force in the exotics.

Race 6:

CJ
#5 Worldly Endeavor
#7 Splice Girl
#3 Witto Road

BG
#8 Rolly's Babysnooks 8/5

EXPERT
#7 Splice Girl
#8 Rolly's Babysnooks
#3 Witto Road

COMPUTRAK: no pick, 8/5/3 top three

Despite the seemingly ringing endorsement of Rolly's Babysnooks here, I have a note at the top of this race that says "FIND A LONGSHOT." I guarantee you my favorite goes down here, as there are too many what-the-hell-are-you-doing-in-this-race horses here, and something odd will happen. Here's my questions on CJ's picks... Why is Worldly Endeavor being turned after two weeks AGAIN after that pattern has resulted in two straight and obvious regressions? Give that horse a rest! Can Splice Girl get the distance? Are you sure? And do you really want to play a horse (Witto Road) in N2L company that hasn't been close to graduating for over a year? I'm really not in love with this race.

Race 7:

CJ
#7 Professor Biggs
#9 Big Tex
#6 Sandy's Secret

BG
#7 Professor Biggs 9/5
#3 Drivingmaxandmitzi / #4 Oh Oleg 7/2
#1 Mr. C Note / #9 Big Tex 4/1
#5 Wolf Howl 9/2
#6 Sandy's Secret 5/1

EXPERT
#4 Oh Oleg
#5 Wolf Howl
#7 Professor Biggs

COMPUTRAK: #7 is the pick, 7/4/3 top three

See the post below for what I think about Sandy's Secret, but he stuck in my craw as I was breaking down this race for some reason and on the rare occasions that happens to me, those horses tend to perform. Anyway, Professor Biggs is a solid choice here, but I threw in my seven other horses of the nine here to remind our trifecta players (coughCJcough) to cover their bases here. It's a difficult race to pick two and three effectively, so watch out.

Race 8:

CJ
#9 She Too
#5 Dual Diagnosis
#1 Honeymooning

BG
#9 She Too 8/5
#2 Top Kitten 5/2
#5 Dual Diagnosis 9/2

EXPERT
#9 She Too
#4 Hi Class Gift
#5 Dual Diagnosis

COMPUTRAK: #5/#9 co-picks, 9/5/7 top three

I don't think Honeymooning has the figs to hang in allowance class here, and I think Top Kitten does. We'll see.

Race 9:

CJ
#4 Seneca Summer
#1 Tyler's Jewel
#8 Northcountry Chief

BG
#4 Seneca Summer 2/1
#7 Natural Advantage 3/1
#5 Notonetoquit 9/2

EXPERT
#4 Seneca Summer
#1 Tyler's Jewel
#6 Ceviche

COMPUTRAK: #4 is the pick, 4/1/9 top three

I've got Tyler's Jewel at 5/1 and Northcountry Chief at 6/1. The Chief spiked last out and is taking a significant tag jump as well. Smells like disaster brewing to me. I like Tyler's consistency, but he ran two back at 36/1 and his last at 13/1 in this class. Neither time in the win or place column. I don't see it. Natural Advantage would need an improve, but his last was a non-wagering event featuring Kaufy Machine and Above the Wind, two much better horses, so his fourth place finish is deceptive.

Race 10:

CJ
PENDING

BG
#6 Puzzle 2/1
#9 Secret Samba 3/1
#10 Full Flavor 7/2

EXPERT
#3 Way Out Verdict
#2 Ituna
#5 Secret Lies

COMPUTRAK: #9 is the pick, 9/11/8 top three

Race 11:

CJ
PENDING

BG
#9 Adham 5/2
#10 Light Night 3/1
#3 Lakely 7/2

EXPERT
#10 Light Night
#1 Heath's Jet
#9 Adham

COMPUTRAK: #9 is the pick, 10/3/9 top three

Lakely emerges from a key race where first and second both went on to win their next. I like this step up, and I really do expect him to outrun the 7/2 oddsline I set. He's going to be my play.

Race 12:

CJ
PENDING

BG
#10 Quite the Guy 9/5
#9 National Anthem 2/1
#7 Go for Glitter 3/1

EXPERT
#7 Go for Glitter
#5 Johnato
#14 Nobodys Listening (alternate entry)

COMPUTRAK: #10 is the pick, 10/11/9 top three

Really splitting hairs when picking between Quite the Guy and National Anthem. I just have more faith in the trainer/jock connex with QTG.